Select Language

Japanese Yen sinks as Takaichi's win sparks fiscal easing bets, tempers BoJ rate hike bets

Breaking news

Japanese Yen sinks as Takaichi's win sparks fiscal easing bets, tempers BoJ rate hike bets

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.10.06 11:55
Japanese Yen sinks as Takaichi's win sparks fiscal easing bets, tempers BoJ rate hike bets

update 2025.10.06 11:55

  • The Japanese Yen weakened sharply in reaction to Sanae Takaichi's election as the leader of Japan's ruling LDP.
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 rallies to a fresh record high amid stimulus hopes and further weighs on the safe-haven JPY.
  • Fed rate cut bets and the US government shutdown might cap any further gains for the USD and the USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) slumps across the board at the start of a new week in reaction to the outcome of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, which positions Sanae Takaichi to become the first female Prime Minister. Takaichi is viewed as fiscally dovish and is expected to oppose any further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, along with the upbeat market mood, prompts aggressive selling around the safe-haven JPY during the Asian session on Monday.

Meanwhile, a sharp weakening in the JPY provides a goodish lift to the US Dollar (USD) and pushes the USD/JPY pair closer to the 150.00 psychological mark, or the highest level since August, touched earlier this month. The upside for the USD, however, seems limited in the wake of bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates two more times this year and concerns that a prolonged US government shutdown could impact the US economic performance. This, in turn, might cap the currency pair.

Japanese Yen slumps as Takaichi's victory spurs bets of fiscal easing and delayed BoJ rate hikes

  • Sanae Takaichi was elected as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a run-off election held on Saturday and is now expected to be confirmed as Japan's first female Prime Minister during a parliamentary session in mid-October. Takaichi stood out in the race as the only proponent of big spending and loose monetary policy.
  • Expectations for more expansionary economic policies could complicate the Bank of Japan's task and also seem to have raised the chances that the central bank will avoid raising interest rates this month. The optimism lifts Japan's Nikkei 225 to a fresh record high and weighs heavily on the Japanese Yen during the Asian session on Monday.
  • Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated last week that the central bank will raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. Moreover, markets are fully pricing in another rate increase by the BoJ early next year, which might continue to offer some support to the JPY and help limit deeper losses.
  • The BoJ's hawkish stance marks a significant divergence in comparison to rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs in October and in December. Adding to this, concerns about the economic impact of a US government shutdown might keep a lid on any further USD appreciation and cap the USD/JPY pair.
  • Important US macro releases scheduled at the start of a new month have been delayed due to the government closure, leaving the USD at the mercy of speeches from influential FOMC members. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could drive the USD/JPY pair ahead of Japan's Household Spending data due for release on Tuesday.

USD/JPY could accelerate the positive momentum above the September swing high, around 150.00

From a technical perspective, last week's bounce from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a subsequent move up beyond the 150.00 round figure will be seen as a fresh trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction, spot prices might then aim to test the August monthly swing high, around the 151.00 neighborhood, with some intermediate resistance near the 150.65-150.70 region.

On the flip side, any corrective slide below the 149.40 immediate support could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the Asian session low, around the 149.00 mark. A convincing break below the latter could drag the USD/JPY pair to the next relevant support near the 148.35 region en route to the 148.00 round figure and the 147.80 zone, which, if broken, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.

Japanese Yen FAQs

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world's most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan's policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan's mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ's stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen's value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.


Date

Created

 : 2025.10.06

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.10.06

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

EUR/USD falls on French political shock and shutdown lift Dollar

EUR/USD retreats during the North American session sponsored by political turmoil in France and US Dollar strength, amid the sixth day of government shutdown in the US. The pair trades at 1.1714, down 0.24%.
New
update2025.10.07 07:02

Fed Schmid: The Fed must maintain inflation credibility

The President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank Jeffrey Schmid crossed the newswires on October 6. He delivered hawkish remarks, saying that the Fed must maintain its inflation credibility and stressed that inflation is too high. He added that monetary policy is appropriately calibrated.
New
update2025.10.07 07:02

Gold blasts past $3,950 as shutdown, uncertainty fuels haven rush

Gold price rallies to a new record high past the $3,900 figure on Monday, hitting $3,970 as the US government continues its shutdown, while investors are pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the upcoming October 29 meeting.  XAU/USD trades at $3,952, up 1.73%, at the time of w
New
update2025.10.07 03:49

Australian Dollar rises as Greenback softens on shutdown, dovish Fed outlook

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, extending its recovery as the Greenback's early strength fades. The pair rebounds toward the upper end of its recent consolidation band after swinging sharply in both directions earlier in the day.
New
update2025.10.07 03:40

Dow Jones Industrial Average wobbles near record highs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) struggled to keep its footing on Monday, kicking off the new trading week opening at record highs above 46,800. The Dow slipped early on Monday after investors briefly showed frayed nerves, but general market sentiment continues to drift into the high side.
New
update2025.10.07 03:05

FX Today: Fedspeak expected to grab all the attention

The US Dollar (USD) rose to multi-day highs on Monday, propped up almost exclusively by the strong depreciation of the Japanese Yen.
New
update2025.10.07 02:45

ECB's Lagarde declares disinflation process over, floats Euro as global currency candidate

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde confidently declared the ECB has achieved its disinflation targets while testifying before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
New
update2025.10.07 02:36

Canadian Dollar steadies as Oil recovery offsets US Dollar's limited gains

The USD/CAD exchange rate remains stable on Monday, hovering around 1.3950 at the time of writing. The cross edged lower earlier on Monday as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained support from the rebound in Oil prices, before stabilizing.
New
update2025.10.07 02:20

EUR/JPY steadies near record high as Euro and Yen face political shocks

EUR/JPY stabilizes around 175.70 on Monday, up 1.4% for the day, after reaching a record high of 176.25. The unexpected resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, announced just hours after unveiling his new cabinet, shocked markets and weighed on the single currency.
New
update2025.10.07 01:30

EUR/USD rebounds above 1.1700 US Dollar strength fades amid shutdown, Fed cut bets

The Euro (EUR) recovers modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, paring earlier losses after briefly hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks. The pair climbs back above 1.1700 as the Greenback's initial advance, driven by weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen (JPY), loses steam.
New
update2025.10.07 01:09

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel