USD/CHF struggles to find momentum despite broad Dollar weakness

• USD/CHF continues to stubbornly hold onto chart region just below 0.8000.
• SNB continues to fight a bitter battle against negative rates, but watchers remain sceptical.
• USD market flows have drawn down sharply with the US government heading into a fiscal shutdown.

USD/CHF continues to trudge its way through familiar technical territory, with price action holding stubbornly just south of the 0.8000 major handle. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to fight back against market expectations of a return to negative interest rates, with Swiss inflation already riding too close to zero to allow the SNB to make sharp policy moves.

The US federal government has hit a slight policy snag after Congress failed to pass an interim budget spending bill that would finance government operations at the start of the federal government's fiscal year, which begins on October 1 every year. This marks the fourth government shutdown across Donald Trump's two terms as president. Investors are largely brushing off the operational blackout, as US government shutterings tend to have a limited impact on economic factors.

Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is due on Thursday, and is expected to show headline Swiss inflation ticking up to 0.3% YoY from 0.2%. However, the increase in inflation is still far too low to open the door for an easy policy transition back into negative territory as a growing number of market participants expect from the SNB.

Swiss National Bank Interest Rate, via tradingeconomics.com

This week's hotly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report is at risk of being delayed or suspended. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a government shutdown will result in official dataset releases being suspended until federal operations resume.

ADP Employment Change figures came in much lower than the street expected, showing a contraction of -32K in September versus the expected 50K. August's initial print of 54K was also revised sharply lower to -3K. ADP jobs figures suffer from constant revisions, but the figure has generally missed expectations for all but three of the monthly figures published since the start of 2025.

With the NFP print in jeopardy, investors are leaning further on private data such as ADP. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, rate trader bets of another quarter-point interest rate cut on October 29 surged to 99% post-ADP on Wednesday. Rate markets are also pricing in nearly 90% odds of a third-straight rate trim on December 10, and a further 93% that the Fed will deliver a fourth interest rate cut by next April at the absolute latest.

USD/CHF daily chart