EU Gas market: Autumn is here - Commerzbank

As the heating season approaches, the lull in the European Gas market persists. The benchmark TTF Gas price has been hovering around the €32 per MWh mark since the end of June, remaining close to this year's low of just over €30 per MWh, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

European Gas prices hold steady as storage levels recover

"The recently faster rise in European Gas storage levels provides some relief. At the end of the last heating season, storage levels were significantly lower than in the previous two years due to a cold winter. By the end of March, storage levels stood at around 33%, compared to 25 percentage points higher levels at the same time the previous year. This had sparked concerns that storage facilities might not be replenished quickly enough ahead of the next heating period. However, thanks to a significant increase in Gas imports during the second quarter, storage levels have risen by almost 50 percentage points since their March lows, reaching 82% most recently."

"The US has significantly expanded its LNG exports following the commissioning of two new LNG export terminals at the end of last year (Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and Corpus Christi Stage 3). In the first half of this year, US exports were nearly 20% higher than the previous year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) even expects an increase of 25% for the full year. This expansion has likely eased concerns about supply shortages following the imminent phase-out of Russian Gas imports. The EU recently decided to also end its remaining (LNG) imports from Russia, which recently still accounted for about 10% of total imports, by early 2027--one year earlier than previously planned."

"Recently, China has imported less LNG, allowing more supply to be available for the EU. In the first eight months of this year, Chinese LNG imports were roughly 17% below last year's levels. According to the analysis firm Kpler, which evaluates shipping data, September is projected to see another significant year-on-year decline of 22%. In addition to weaker demand, the increase in pipeline Gas imports appears to be a contributing factor. These imports have risen by 25% since the beginning of the year, likely due to increased supplies from Russia, which has been redirecting its Gas exports from the EU to China."