Canadian Dollar rebounds after losing ground for a week straight

• The Canadian Dollar showed signs of life on Monday, clawing back a scant 0.15% against the US Dollar.
• The Canadian side of the economic data docket this week remains thin.
• Key US data looms ahead, but a government shutdown could delay the figures.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) showed a pulse on Monday, rebounding against the US Dollar (USD) after five straight sessions of declines. The Loonie caught a much-needed bullish boost to pump the brake's against the Greenback's broad-market decline, and investors are gearing up for a tense week of politics watching.

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data is technically due this Friday, but a looming government shutdown could see the national jobs figure delayed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) if the US government can't figure out how to meet its funding obligations this week.

The latest Canadian Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from September are due on Wednesday, followed by the Summary of Deliberations, or meeting minutes, from the Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest interest rate decision.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar finally comes up for air on Monday

• The Canadian Dollar snapped a five-session losing streak against the US Dollar on Monday, pumping the brakes near the 1.3900 handle on the USD/CAD chart.
• The Canadian Dollar has lost ground against the US Dollar for all but one of the last eight consecutive market sessions, falling nearly 1.7% top-to-bottom against the Greenback in the process.
• The BoC's latest meeting minutes, due on Wednesday, will draw some attention as CAD traders weigh odds of another interest rate cut from the cut-happy BoC.
• The market is beholden to political headlines this week: If the two sides of US Congress can't find enough common ground to pass a basic budget spending bill, the US government could be heading into a budgetary shutdown.
• The Trump administration has overspent its budget limits every single month since Trump took office in January, rapidly depleting the federal government's operations coffers.

Canadian Dollar price forecast

USD/CAD has transitioned from a choppy consolidation between 1.3600 and 1.3800 into a more decisive bullish move, confirmed by the break above the 200-day EMA. This is a classic bullish development, often seen as a longer-term trend reversal signal when combined with a rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 1.4000 handle is the next key resistance area. Price has rejected this zone before, so bulls will need a clean daily close above 1.4015 to confirm further upside.

Immediate support sits at the 200-day EMA near 1.3870 and then at the 50-day EMA at 1.3810. These levels should act as a cushion if price pulls back. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the low 60s indicates bullish momentum is building, but not yet stretched. This suggests there's room for continuation higher before conditions become overbought.

USD/CAD daily chart