WTI Price Forecast: Bears eye $61.50 floor as momentum stays weak below 200-day SMA

• WTI extends its corrective slide on Monday, resuming its pullback after peaking at a seven-week high late last week.
• Price action remains trapped between $61.50-$65.00 range since mid-August, with the 50-day SMA acting as a key near-term pivot.
• A sustained recovery above $65.00 and last week's $66.19 peak would open the door for a retest of the July swing high near $70.00.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil kicks off the week on a softer footing, resuming its downside correction after peaking at a seven-week high on Friday. At the time of writing, WTI trades near $63.65 per barrel, down over 2.0% on the day.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that price action has been confined within a horizontal band between $61.50 and $65.00 since mid-August. Bulls have repeatedly failed to force a close above the upper boundary, where the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a prior swing-high convergence. On the downside, dip buyers continue to step in near the $62.00-$ 61.50 floor, thereby preserving the broader sideways structure.

The 50-day SMA near $64.00 is acting as a near-term pivot as the market tests this level. A decisive daily close below the 50-day SMA would likely embolden sellers and expose the range floor near $62.00-61.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 52.9, pointing to neutral momentum after failing to push above the mid-50s, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is subdued at 12.4, indicating a weak underlying trend. Unless these gauges turn higher alongside a price breakout above the 200-day SMA, further upside looks limited.

Overall, WTI remains confined to a broad range, with sideways trading likely to persist until a fresh catalyst emerges. A clear break below $61.50 would expose downside targets at $60.00 and $59.50. On the upside, a sustained recovery above $65.00 and last week's high at $66.19 would open the door for a retest of the July swing high near $70.00.