GBP/JPY sticks to intraday recovery gains above mid-199.00s amid notable JPY weakness

• GBP/JPY rebounds from a two-week low touched during the Asian session on Monday.
• The BoJ rate hike uncertainty weighs on the JPY and offers some support to spot prices.
• UK fiscal concerns and the divergent BoJ-BoE policy outlooks warrant caution for bulls.

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some buyers near the 199.20 area, or a two-week low touched during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have stalled last week's retracement slide from the highest level since July 2024. Spot prices currently trade around the 199.60-199.65 region, up 0.15% for the day amid a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), though the upside seems limited.

Despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish on-hold decision on Friday, investors remain worried that political uncertainty and economic headwinds stemming from US tariffs could give the central bank more reasons to delay rate hikes. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen undermining the JPY's safe-haven status and turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.

However, the growing acceptance that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, hawkish BoJ expectations mark a significant divergence in comparison to the Bank of England's (BoE) dovish signal that there will be further reductions in the bank rate. Apart from this, rising geopolitical tensions could limit JPY losses and cap the GBP/JPY cross.

Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) might continue with its relative underperformance amid fresh concerns over the UK's fiscal outlook. Moreover, a firmer US Dollar (USD) is seen exerting some pressure on the GBP, which might further contribute to capping the GBP/JPY cross. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the prior well-established uptrend.