Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD finds support at $3,630 as US Dollar recovery stalls

• Gold bounces up from $3,630 and returns above $3,650 as the US Dollar's rebound loses momentum.
• The Greenback drew some support from a strong decline in claims and upbeat manufacturing data.
• The broader trend remains positive, as hopes of Fed cuts will likely limit US Dollar rallies.
  
  

Gold found buyers at the $3,630 level to bounce up on Friday following a two-day reversal from all-time highs at $3,700 on Wednesday. The precious metal attracted some bids with the US Dollar recovery losing steam, and returned to levels past $3,650.

Better-than-expected US jobless claims and a strong rebound of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey provided additional support for the US Dollar's recovery. That said,  the scope for a sharp recovery is likely to be limited with the market nearly fully pricing another Fed rate cut in October and high chances of further monetary easing in December.

Weak US employment data has boosted hopes of Fed cuts over the following months. Futures markets are broadly pricing a quarter point in each monetary policy meeting this year and some more in the first months of 2026, a view that is highly unlikely to be confirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Technical Analysis: Correcting lower from all-time highs

The technical picture shows Gold correcting from the all-time highs right above $3,700, yet with the broader upside trend intact. The Daily RSI is pulling back, but still remains at overbought levels while the MACD shows an impending bearish cross, suggesting that a deeper correction is likely.

Immediate support remains at the $3,615-3,630 area (September 11, 18 lows). Further down, the September 3 high and September 8 low, at $3,580, come into focus ahead of the September 8 low, at $3,500.

To the upside, Thursday's high, near $3,675 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the mentioned all-time high, at $3,710. Beyond here, the 161.8% extension of last week's rally, near $3,740 emerges at the next upside target.