Select Language

USD/CAD holds steady above 1.3800, Canadian Retail Sales data looms

Breaking news

USD/CAD holds steady above 1.3800, Canadian Retail Sales data looms

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.09.19 13:34
USD/CAD holds steady above 1.3800, Canadian Retail Sales data looms

update 2025.09.19 13:34

  • USD/CAD flat lines near 1.3800 in Friday's early European session.
  • The Fed cut the rates but signaled little urgency to lower borrowing costs quickly in the coming months.
  • The Canadian July Retail Sales report will be in the spotlight later on Friday. 

The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note around 1.3800 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) might receive some support from a less dovish than expected stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders await the Canadian Retail Sales data for July for fresh impetus, which is due later on Friday. 

The Fed decided to cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and signaled two more reductions by the end of this year at its September meeting. This is the Fed's first reduction this year and puts the target range for its main lending rate at 4.0% - 4.25%. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the latest move to lower interest rates was a risk management cut, adding that he doesn't feel the need to move quickly on rates. A less dovish stance from the US central bank provides some support to the Greenback in the near term. 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets by cutting its key rate to a three-year low of 2.5% at its meeting on Wednesday, while signaling it could ease further if needed. The divergence in interest rate paths from the BoC and the US Fed could exert some selling pressure on the Loonie as the US central bank offered a far less dovish message after its first rate cut of the year.

Meanwhile, a rise in crude oil prices might lift the commodity-linked Loonie and create a headwind for the pair. It's worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.


Date

Created

 : 2025.09.19

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.19

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Trump's tariff threat on China sinks US Dollar as market sentiment deteriorates

The US Dollar Index (DXY) drops by 0.48% to trade around 98.90 on Friday at the time of writing, extending its recent weakness as global investors react to a new escalation in trade tensions between the United States (US) and China.
New
update2025.10.11 01:34

EUR/USD steadies amid French political turmoil and prolonged US shutdown

The Euro (EUR) is showing signs of stabilization against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, pausing a four-day losing streak as the Greenback softens modestly. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades near 1.1588, up around 0.22% on the day, after dipping to a two-month low on Thursday.
New
update2025.10.11 00:39

GBP/USD tumbles to two-month low amid UK fiscal worries and US Dollar strength

GBP/USD retreats toward 1.3280 during Friday's US session, marking a fresh two-month low. The US Dollar (USD) remains firm, supported by increased safe-haven demand amid political uncertainty in Japan and France.
New
update2025.10.11 00:36

EUR/GBP steady near 0.87 amid French unrest and UK fiscal challenges

The EUR/GBP advanced on Friday but remained shy of the 0.8700 figure after hitting a daily high of 0.8725 earlier during the European session. France political turmoil and a stagnating economy in the UK, could keep the cross-pair trading within familiar levels of 0.8650-0.8750.
New
update2025.10.11 00:34

WTI Crude Oil dips below $60as Gaza peace deal eases geopolitical risk

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil extends its slide for the second consecutive day on Friday, giving up all gains recorded earlier in the week as selling pressure intensified.
New
update2025.10.10 23:00

US indices open higher as AI momentum offsets government shutdown uncertainty

US stocks edge higher at the opening of Wall Street on Friday as investors look ahead to fresh consumer sentiment data and keep a close eye on developments in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector.
New
update2025.10.10 22:59

USD/CAD retreats below 1.4000 as strong Canada jobs data boost the Loonie

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, snapping a three-day losing streak after upbeat employment figures boosted investor confidence and helped offset recent Greenback strength.
New
update2025.10.10 22:16

Gold recovers ahead of US sentiment data; bulls defend $3,950 support zone

Gold (XAU/USD) regains upward momentum on Friday following a sharp pullback the previous day after retesting Wednesday's all-time high of $4,059. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is hovering around $3,990, up nearly 0.30% after rebounding from an intraday low near $3,947.
New
update2025.10.10 21:12

AUD/USD ticks lower as US Dollar trades firmly, US data eyed

The AUD/USD pair edges lower to near 0.6550 during the late European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair faces a slight selling pressure as the US Dollar holds onto gains driven by recent political developments in Japan and France.
New
update2025.10.10 20:56

USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 7.1200 and 7.1550 - UOB Group

USD is expected to trade in a range between 7.1200 and 7.1550, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.10 20:45

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel