WTI Price Forecast: Oil consolidates between 21-day and 50-day SMAs

• WTI edges higher, trading near $64.00 after trimming intraday losses but struggling to extend gains.
• WTI is capped by key moving averages, with intraday action squeezed between the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA.
• Momentum indicators turns constructive, as RSI edges higher near 52 and MACD confirms a fresh bullish crossover.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil edges higher during the American session on Wednesday after trimming intraday losses. At the time of writing, WTI is trading near the $64.00 mark, but the recovery lacks follow-through as the commodity struggles to extend gains for the fourth straight day.

The US Dollar (USD) is holding steady ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement, though it remains pinned close to its lowest level since July 1. The Fed's decision on interest rates is expected to influence broader market sentiment, with a 25 bps cut largely priced in. For Oil traders, the tone of Fed Chair Powell's guidance could dictate near-term price action.

Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin oil's risk premium. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian Oil infrastructure have fueled concerns about potential supply disruptions. In Europe, Poland has called on the European Union (EU) to completely phase out Russian Oil imports by 2026, citing security risks, which could reshape medium-term supply flows.

From a technical perspective, WTI is struggling to extend gains after Tuesday's decisive break above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). While the short-term momentum improved with this breakout, the intraday price action is being squeezed between the 21-day SMA at $63.38 acting as immediate support and the 50-day SMA at $64.39 serving as resistance.

Zooming out, the broader structure remains defined by a horizontal range, with WTI contained between $65.00 on the upside and $61.50 on the downside since early August. A sustained break above the upper boundary could unlock room toward $67.00-68.00, whereas a drop below $61.50 would expose the $60.00 psychological level and potentially shift momentum back in favor of sellers.

Momentum indicators are beginning to tilt in favor of the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds around 52, signaling neutral conditions but edging higher. More notably, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing early signs of bullish momentum, with a fresh crossover confirmed as the MACD line moved above the signal line and the histogram flipped positive. This suggests upward pressure is building, though confirmation requires a clean break above the 50-day SMA to validate the signal.