WPIC continues to see Platinum market as significantly undersupplied - Commerzbank

The World Platinum Investment Council has revised its forecast for the supply deficit in the Platinum market this year downwards to 850,000 ounces. The Platinum market is thus showing a considerable supply deficit for the third year in a row. Last year, demand exceeded supply by 968,000 ounces. The reason for the downward revision is a slightly higher than expected recycling supply and weaker industrial demand. The latter is expected to fall to an eight-year low, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Platinum price to trade at $1,400 at the end of 2025

"This is mainly due to significantly lower demand from the glass industry. Significantly stronger jewelry demand, which is expected to rise to a seven-year high thanks to a surge in demand in China in the second quarter, cannot fully offset this. The slight downward revisions in automotive demand and upward revisions in investment demand roughly offset each other. The slightly stronger investment demand is attributable to robust demand for bars and coins. The ETF demand expected for this year has been confirmed, which is surprising given the strong ETF outflows since May."

"The forecast for mine supply was also confirmed. It is expected to continue falling by almost 6% compared to the previous year, reaching a five-year low. The significant increase in the price of Platinum since the last forecast has therefore not yet had any impact. In this context, the WPIC points to the multi-year time span between development and the start of production in mining projects. However, recently decommissioned shafts from existing mines could also have been put back into operation. Above-ground stocks are expected to fall to a little less than 3 million ounces this year."

"We have raised our Platinum price forecast for the end of 2025 to $1,400 per troy ounce (previously $1,350). This reflects the higher price level and the raised gold price forecast. We are confirming our year-end forecast for 2026 at $1,500. The price forecasts for Palladium remain unchanged at $1,200 (end of 2025) and $1,300 (end of 2026)."