Select Language

USD/CHF holds losses near 0.8050 amid rising Fed rate cut bets, US NFP eyed

Breaking news

USD/CHF holds losses near 0.8050 amid rising Fed rate cut bets, US NFP eyed

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.09.05 13:53
USD/CHF holds losses near 0.8050 amid rising Fed rate cut bets, US NFP eyed

update 2025.09.05 13:53

  • USD/CHF struggles as the US Dollar loses ground ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.
  • CME FedWatch tool suggests a pricing in more than 99% of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September.
  • The Swiss Franc receives support from safe-haven inflows, driven by rising debt and persistent inflation concerns.

USD/CHF retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.8050 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following softer-than-expected United States (US) job data released on Thursday. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing in more than 99% of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 87% a week ago.

The US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 237K in the week ending August 30, up from 229K previously and above the market forecast of 230K. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 54,000 jobs in August, below expectations of 65,000 and following a revised 106,000 increase in July (from 104,000).

Traders are awaiting further labor market data that could shape the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy decision in September. Economists project US Nonfarm Payrolls to add about 75,000 jobs in August, while the Unemployment Rate is seen at 4.3%.

Additionally, the USD/CHF pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from safe-haven inflows. The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond fell to 0.30%, down more than 5.5%, amid a sharp global bond sell-off fueled by rising debt concerns, persistent inflation risks, and increasing political pressure on central banks.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to maintain its interest rate at 0% later this month following the Swiss inflation data, which remained at 0.2% in August, aligning with the central bank's target of 0%-2%.

Swiss Franc FAQs

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland's official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country's economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc's value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn't in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country's currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year - once every quarter, less than other major central banks - to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc's (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank's currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland's main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.


Date

Created

 : 2025.09.05

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.05

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Fed's Daly calls for more rate cuts, but Fed needs to watch labor and inflation

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary C.
New
update2025.09.26 04:47

Banxico cuts rates 25 bps to 7.50% as expected, further easing eyed

The Bank of Mexico reduced its main reference rates by 25 basis points as expected, to 7.50% with not an unanimous decision, with a 4 to 1 vote split, with Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath, once against voting to hold rates unchanged. developing story, more to come ...
New
update2025.09.26 04:04

Dow Jones Industrial Average falls as downside momentum accelerates

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pivoted further into the bearish side on Thursday, shedding around 400 points top-to-bottom and slipping back below the 46,000 level as equity traders sharply rebalance their expectations for heavy AI investment schemes that have materialized in recent days.
New
update2025.09.26 03:57

AUD/USD tumbles to three-week low as US Dollar rallies on robust economic data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slumps against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the AUD/USD pair extending losses for a second consecutive session and falling to its weakest level since September 5.
New
update2025.09.26 03:51

Gold pares gains as strong US data offsets Fed cut narrative

Gold price trimmed earlier gains after reaching a daily high of $3,761 on Thursday, following the release of a US jobs report that showed signs of strength, contrary to the main reason for cutting rates last week. Also, traders are eyeing the release of inflation data on Friday.
New
update2025.09.26 03:19

FX Today: US, Tokyo inflation in the limelight

The US Dollar (USD) picked up strong pace on Thursday, advancing to three-week highs as investors assessed firmer US data releases while Fed officials gave mixed remarks regarding the Fed's rate path.
New
update2025.09.26 03:15

Fed's Logan calls for Fed to modernize interest rate target system

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan stated on Thursday that the Fed needs to modernize how it approaches setting interest rates, acknowledging that the central bank may need to allow for more volatility in the underlying repo rate and noted that the Fed has overhauled its rate
New
update2025.09.26 02:57

Goolsbee says rates can come down, but pace depends on inflation

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged that interest rates are currently in restrictive territory, implying there may be room to move lower soon.
New
update2025.09.26 01:54

USD/JPY rallies to seven-week high; focus shifts to US PCE and Tokyo CPI

The Japanese Yen (JPY) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with USD/JPY surging to its highest level in seven weeks.
New
update2025.09.26 01:29

GBP/JPY slips as UK fiscal concerns weigh, BoJ hike bets firm

The Pound Sterling losses ground versus the Japanese Yen on Thursday as the cross-pair reversed its course from around weekly highs of 200.34, weighed by investors growing concerns about Britain finances. The GBP/JPY trades at 199.72, down 0.27%.
New
update2025.09.26 00:26

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel