Select Language

Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs after weak ADP bolsters Fed rate cut bets

Breaking news

Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs after weak ADP bolsters Fed rate cut bets

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.09.05 02:47
Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs after weak ADP bolsters Fed rate cut bets

update 2025.09.05 02:47

  • The Dow Jones rose over 250 points on Thursday, bolstered by rising hope for Fed rate cuts.
  • US ADP jobs numbers came in well below expectations, sending rate cut expectations even higher.
  • This Friday's NFP jobs report will be a barn-burner for market participants.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit the bids running on Thursday, climbing over 250 points after disappointing ADP jobs data counterintuitively sent equity markets rallying. Softer-than-expected advance payroll figures implied that the US labor market may continue softening in the near term, bolstering market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be bullied into delivering an interest rate cut on September 17.

The Dow Jones still remains in the red for the week, but only slightly, within touch range of the week's opening bids and trailing just behind the 45,600 level. The major index is poised for a fresh break toward new record highs above 45,760, but only if US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data plays bullish ball on Friday.

ADP Employment Change numbers from August showed an even steeper slowdown in hiring than expected, clocking in at just 54K compared to the expected 65K and falling sharply from the previous 106K. Initial Jobless Claims also ticked higher, rising to 237K on a weekly basis, over and above the expected 230K, albeit slightly.

Markets find their Goldilocks data releases as ADP jobs decline, but PMIs climb

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose for a third straight month to 52.0 in August, adding further bullish support for equities on Thursday. Looking further into the report, overall firm responses were bullish on near-term activity outlooks because consumer demand remains steady, putting pressure on logistics and deliveries that are struggling to keep up.

However, the inventory sentiment segment showed a 28th consecutive month of expansion, implying that a lot of recent economic activity is owing to businesses hoping to fill warehouse space at the last minute before tariffs become a real problem. The backlog component also showed its lowest reading since mid-2009 as future orders dry up in the face of ongoing trade turmoil.

US wages and NFP net job additions are on the docket on Friday and will be drawing full-market attention for this iteration of the monthly figure. The NFP is expected to hold steady at 75K in August, a slight uptick from the previous month's 73K. Softening US labor figures are viewed broadly as a requirement for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume cutting interest rates at its upcoming rate call on September 17, and investors are launching themselves into the bullish side ahead of Friday's bumper employment report.

Dow Jones daily chart


Dow Jones FAQs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow's theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.


Date

Created

 : 2025.09.05

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.05

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Gold slips below $3,550 as US Dollar rebound offsets Fed cut bets

Gold price edges lower during the North American session on Thursday as the Greenback recovers some ground, even though the latest round of economic data increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at the September meeting. The XAU/USD trades at $3,542, down 0.48%.
New
update2025.09.05 03:40

AUD/USD steadies above 0.6500 as focus shifts to US Nonfarm Payrolls

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with AUD/USD down almost 0.50%, trading near 0.6510 at the time of writing.
New
update2025.09.05 03:27

Forex Today: US Nonfarm Payrolls will grab all the attention

The US Dollar (USD) managed to regain some balance and clock decent gains, always meandering in the low 98.00s amid investors' rising expectations ahead of the release of the crucial NFP report.
New
update2025.09.05 03:16

USD/JPY steadies above 148.00 with NFP in the spotlight

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with USD/JPY recovering most of Wednesday's losses and edging higher.
New
update2025.09.05 02:47

Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs after weak ADP bolsters Fed rate cut bets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit the bids running on Thursday, climbing over 250 points after disappointing ADP jobs data counterintuitively sent equity markets rallying.
New
update2025.09.05 02:46

Fed's Williams warns that Fed has to balance inflation and jobs market

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams warned on Thursday that although he expects Fed interest rates to continue declining at a slow pace, the Fed's dual mandate still means the US central bank has to carefully balance supporting the jobs market with interest rate cuts with
New
update2025.09.05 01:28

EUR/GBP dips to 0.8660 as UK fiscal woes meet EZ inflation pressure

The Euro retreats against the British Pound on Thursday, even though fears of an economic slowdown in the UK, hurts the prospects of the Sterling against rising inflation in the Eurozone. At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP trades at 0.8666 after hitting a daily high of 0.8681.
New
update2025.09.05 00:31

Trump's Fed pick Stephen Miran vows to resign from CEA if confirmed for Fed seat

Stephen Miran, Donald Trump's pick to fill a recently vacated seat on the Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors, vowed that he would resign from the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) if confirmed by Congress to take a spot at the Fed. Miran was also selected by Trump to take a seat on the CEA.
New
update2025.09.05 00:23

Japan's political uncertainty weighs on JPY outlook - Rabobank

During the spring and early summer there was hope that the political clouds in Japan would clear after the July Upper House election. That has not been the case. The poor performance of the LDP in that election has meant that changes in its leadership are still expected.
New
update2025.09.05 00:16

WTI Price Forecast: Oil claws back above $63 after hitting a two-week low, OPEC+ meeting in focus

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil recovers on Thursday after sliding to its lowest level since August 21, near $62.50 earlier in the day.
New
update2025.09.05 00:14

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel