WTI consolidates near 100-day SMA as $65 resistance comes into play

• WTI Crude Oil rebounds near $64.50 after a 7.6% monthly drop in August, its first decline since April.
• Russian exports slip to a four-week low, while US officials accuse India of profiteering from discounted Russian crude.
• Technically, WTI is testing the $64.80-$65.00 resistance zone; a breakout could target $66.00 (Aug 6 high) and $67.00 (Aug 4 peak).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is rebounding modestly on Monday, trading near $64.45 after logging its first monthly decline since April with a 7.6% drop in August as rising US supply and weaker seasonal demand weighed on sentiment. The fresh month begins with a 1.19% gain on the day, coming amid thin trading conditions following the US Labor Day holiday, while markets gear up for key catalysts later this week, including the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the September 7 OPEC+ meeting.

Geopolitical tensions continue to offer mild support to Oil prices, with Russian crude exports slipping to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day amid ongoing infrastructure disruptions. Analysts have also flagged the risk of a major supply shock if India reduces or halts its Russian crude purchases, a move that could push prices toward $100 per barrel, according to a recent warning from CLSA.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused India of profiteering, alleging the country engaged in "arbitrage" by buying discounted Russian crude and reselling refined fuel at higher margins. Meanwhile, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro claimed in a Fox News interview that Indian oil purchases are indirectly funding Russia's war effort, controversially describing India as a "laundromat for the Kremlin."

Despite Washington's mounting pressure, India has reaffirmed its energy partnership with Moscow, with Russian Oil making up over 31% of India's total crude imports in July. In a column published Monday in The Hindu, India's Oil Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, publicly pushed back against US criticism, refuting claims of profiteering and asserting that India's imports are legal and compliant with G7 price cap mechanisms. He also argued that Indian crude sourcing has played a stabilizing role in global markets, helping prevent Oil prices from surging toward $200 per barrel.

WTI Crude Oil is consolidating around $64.40, holding just above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $64.06. The market is retesting the $64.80-$65.00 area, a previous support that has now turned into resistance. A decisive daily close above this band could open the way toward the $66.00 high from August 6, followed by the $67.00 peak from August 4, while another rejection here would reinforce the broader range-bound structure that has capped upside momentum in recent weeks.

Momentum indicators show a cautiously constructive tilt. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51.3, indicating neutral positioning with modest room for upside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed into positive territory, with green histogram bars starting to expand, signaling early bullish traction. Still, without a clear breakout above $65.00, downside risks linger, with immediate support at the 100-day SMA and stronger buying interest expected around $62.00-$61.50, the August swing low.