Select Language

EUR/USD gains momentum above 1.1700 ahead of ECB's Lagarde speech

Breaking news

EUR/USD gains momentum above 1.1700 ahead of ECB's Lagarde speech

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.09.01 13:26
EUR/USD gains momentum above 1.1700 ahead of ECB's Lagarde speech

update 2025.09.01 13:26

  • EUR/USD trades firmer around 1.1705 in Monday's Asian session. 
  • Traders now see an 89% chance that Fed will lower its benchmark rate by 25bps at the September meeting. 
  • Von der Leyen said Europe has a 'pretty precise' plan to send troops to Ukraine.

The EUR/USD pair trades on a stronger note near 1.1705 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The rising rate cut expectation from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to weigh on the Greenback against the Euro (EUR). Later on Monday, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak. 

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index came in line with the expectations in July, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The headline PCE rose 2.6% YoY in July, while core PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy, climbed 2.9% in the same report period. Despite the hot inflation report, traders still ramp up their bets of a Fed rate reduction this month. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted in his Jackson Hole address earlier this month that the Fed is open to easing policy. Hawkish Fed Governor Christopher Waller also signaled that a rate cut is appropriate, saying he would entertain a larger move if labor market data continue weakening.

Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from an 85% chance before the US PCE data, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Across the pond, the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine might drag the EUR. The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said that European countries are working on "pretty precise plans" for potential military deployments to Ukraine as part of post-conflict security guarantees that will have the full backing of US capabilities. 

Persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine implies higher energy costs and increases geopolitical uncertainty in the Eurozone, which generally exerts some selling pressure on the EUR. 

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates - or the expectation of higher rates - will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB's 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone's economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.


Date

Created

 : 2025.09.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.01

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Pound Sterling gains as UK monthly Retail Sales beat estimates

The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its peers on Friday after the release of the upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for July.
New
update2025.09.05 16:23

GBP/JPY pulls back below 199.50 despite bright UK consumption figures

The British Pound has pulled back from intra-day highs around 199.70 against the Japanese Yen, returning to levels right below 199.50despite the stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures released earlier on the day.Retail Consumption rose at a 0.6% pace in the UK in August, according to data re
New
update2025.09.05 16:22

Forex Today: US Dollar remains within weekly range ahead of employment data

Here is what you need to know on Friday, September 5:
New
update2025.09.05 16:20

WTI Price Forecast: Bearish bias remains intact under 100-day EMA near $63.00

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.00 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI drifts lower as crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, indicating weaker demand.
New
update2025.09.05 15:57

US Dollar Index treads water above 98.00 ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is trading around 98.10 during the early European hours on Friday after recovering recent gains from the previous session.
New
update2025.09.05 15:51

EUR/GBP faces headwinds near 0.8650 following UK Retail Sales, Eurozone GDP eyed

EUR/GBP continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 0.8670 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross faces some headwinds after the release of mixed Retail Sales data from the United Kingdom (UK).
New
update2025.09.05 15:19

Crude Oil price today: WTI price neutral at European opening

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is neutral on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $63.06 per barrel, not far from its Thursday close at $63.06.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude), however, advances from its previous close at $66.70 to trade at $66.71.
New
update2025.09.05 15:09

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests confluence support zone around 1.3800, nine-day EMA

USD/CAD trades around 1.3810 during the Asian hours on Friday, halting its four-day winning streak. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the pair moves sideways within an ascending channel pattern, indicating that market sentiment is bullish.
New
update2025.09.05 14:53

EUR/CAD edges higher above 1.6100 ahead of Canadian employment data

The EUR/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Friday, and trades marginally higher to near 1.6115 during the late Asian trading session. The pair ticks up ahead of the Canadian labor market data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
New
update2025.09.05 14:32

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Keep bullish vibe above 96.50

The AUD/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 96.75 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to lower Japanese auto import tariffs.
New
update2025.09.05 14:28

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel