EUR/JPY price forecast: Falls toward 171.00 on signs of a potential bearish shift

• EUR/JPY may find the primary support at the 50-day EMA of 169.98.
• A bearish shift appears as the currency cross broke below the ascending channel pattern.
• The immediate resistance appears at the nine-day EMA of 171.79.

EUR/JPY depreciates more than 0.5%, trading around 171.20 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a shift from bullish to bearish momentum as the currency cross has broken below the ascending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 mark, suggesting a bearish is in play. Additionally, the short-term price momentum is weaker as the EUR/JPY cross moved below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may target the 50-day EMA at 169.97, followed by the six-week low at 169.72, which was recorded on July 31. A break below this level would prompt the currency cross to test the two-month low at 168.46, registered on July 1.

The EUR/JPY cross could test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 171.81. A break above this level would strengthen short-term price momentum, allowing the currency cross to re-enter the ascending channel, signaling a false breakout and a bullish recovery. Further advances would lead the currency cross to approach 173.90, the highest since July 2024, recorded on July 28, 2025, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 174.30.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart