EUR/CHF Price Forecast: Bulls eye breakout above 0.9430 as Swiss Franc under pressure on US tariff shock

• EUR/CHF holds steady above 0.9400, consolidating recent gains after rebounding from the lower boundary of a multi-month range around 0.9300.
• The Swiss Franc remains under pressure following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports.
• Price action remains capped below key resistance at 0.9430, the upper boundary of a horizontal range that has contained the pair since late April.

The EUR/CHF cross is trading flat but remains resilient above the 0.9400 level on Wednesday, consolidating its recent gains after a strong rebound from the lower end of its multi-month trading range. The pair has caught a bid in recent sessions as the Swiss Franc came under pressure following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, triggering concerns over Switzerland's trade exposure and weighing on safe-haven flows into the Franc.

At the time of writing, EUR/CHF trades near 0.9420, virtually unchanged during the American trading hours.

From a technical perspective, the pair is holding above key support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently positioned near 0.9360, which has acted as a dynamic floor during recent dips. Price action remains confined within a well-defined horizontal range between 0.9300 and 0.9430, in place since mid-May. However, with EUR/CHF now pressing against the upper boundary of this range, a bullish breakout could be in the making if buyers manage a sustained daily close above the 0.9430 hurdle.

Momentum indicators support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62, indicating building positive momentum without entering overbought territory.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in bullish territory, with the MACD line holding above the signal line after a recent crossover earlier this month. However, a closer look at the histogram reveals that the last two bars have slightly narrowed, signaling a moderation in bullish momentum. While this doesn't yet threaten the overall bullish bias, it suggests that buying pressure may be losing some steam as the pair struggles to decisively clear the 0.9430 resistance zone.

A clean break above 0.9430 could open the door for further upside toward the next resistance at 0.9500, the high from April 7, followed by 0.9582, which marks the April 3 peak. On the flip side, immediate support is seen at 0.9400, with additional downside cushioning at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.9360. A break below that level could expose the lower end of the range at 0.9300.