USD recovery remains fragile as tariffs and economic risks mount - BBH

US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields are steady just above Friday's lows while US equity futures point to a modest rebound. Any USD recovery looks fragile in our view, and the broader downtrend should reassert itself, BBH FX analysts report.

USD recovery fragile amid policy credibility and tariff concerns

"First, US policymaking credibility is increasingly under threat. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's departure on August 8, gives President Donald Trump an opportunity to appoint a replacement aligned with his monetary policy agenda. Meanwhile, the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) head by President Trump immediately after the poor July jobs data risks damaging perception of US economic data integrity."

"Second, the US economy is showing cracks while the full hit from tariffs has yet to come. The average effective US tariff rate is estimated at 18.3% as of August 1, the highest since 1934. That's up from 2.4% in January, 7% in May and roughly 16% in June and July. The higher tariffs are projected to lower real GDP growth by -0.5 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026 and increase consumer prices by 1.8% in the short-run."