Created
: 2025.08.04
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DXY: In consolidation following the sharp drop - OCBC
Breaking news
DXY: In consolidation following the sharp drop - OCBC
New
2025.08.04 18:40
2025.08.04 18:40
2025.08.04 18:40
US Dollar (USD) turned sharply lower on release of payrolls report last Fri. Most USD/Asean FX was also trading lower this morning, catching up on the USD pullback. DXY was last at 98.80 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Risks skewed to the downside
"THB, PHP and MYR gained over 1% vs. USD. US NFP headline print of 73k missed expectations (104k) while downward revisions for the last 2 months (-258k) caught markets by surprise. Nevertheless, this alongside the slump in ISM employment (43.4) point to softening labour market."
"Markets were just positioning for a potential return of US exceptionalism trade, but the soft labour market print suggests that the return of US exceptionalism trade may well be a back burner. Fed fund futures are now suggesting that a Sept rate cut should not be ruled out. Focus this week on ISM services data (Tuesday); initial jobless claims (Thursday) and Fedspeaks."
Bullish momentum shows signs of fading while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 98.30 (21, 50 DMAs), 97.20 levels. Resistance at 100 (100 DMA), 100.50 levels.
Last updated
: 2025.08.04
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NZD/USD: Any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.5885/0.5935 - UOB Group
Scope for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.5885/0.5935. In the longer run, slowdown in momentum indicates that the odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
2025.08.04 20:45China: Playbook to reflate the economy - Standard Chartered
Protracted price decline in China has increased the risk of deflation mindset becoming entrenched. Policy makers have stepped up efforts to expand effective demand; zero rate and QE not on the agenda.
New
2025.08.04 20:42AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6430/0.6495 - UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6430/0.6495. In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing; a breach of 0.6520 would indicate that AUD is not breaking below 0.6405.
New
2025.08.04 20:39USD recovery remains fragile as tariffs and economic risks mount - BBH
US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields are steady just above Friday's lows while US equity futures point to a modest rebound. Any USD recovery looks fragile in our view, and the broader downtrend should reassert itself, BBH FX analysts report.
New
2025.08.04 20:37Global PMIs: July decline led by the US - Standard Chartered
Broad-based contraction across sectors in July; all sub-indices were lower than in June. Sharp decline in the US dragged down the aggregate amid reduced tariff-related inventory building.
New
2025.08.04 20:34Full broadside against the USD - Commerzbank
For all those who thought it wouldn't turn out so badly and had recently traded the dollar stronger for it, Friday brought a rude awakening: The latest US jobs report showed that employment growth has dramatically slowed down.
New
2025.08.04 20:27Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD returns above 20-day EMA as Fed dovish bets soar
Gold price (XAU/USD) clings to gains near Friday's high around $3,350 during the European trading session on Monday.
New
2025.08.04 20:14USD: Fed back in focus this week - ING
Friday's soft jobs report knocked the stuffing out of the dollar's rally. Investors now attach an 80% probability to a 25bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
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2025.08.04 20:09GBP/USD: Expected to trade in a range between 1.3220 and 1.3320 - UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a range between 1.3220 and 1.3320. In the longer run, the likelihood of GBP breaking clearly below 1.3140 has diminished considerably, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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2025.08.04 20:06GBP: More consolidation likely - ING
The Bank of England's MPC meeting this Thursday might not prompt a major reassessment of the pace of the easing cycle, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
New
2025.08.04 20:00Disclaimer:
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