Created
: 2025.07.30
2025.07.30 17:54
This week's strong USD performance has been driven by a combination of the US-EU deal, positioning adjustments, and month-end flows. These factors should start to fade now, shifting all the attention to data and the Fed. Before diving into the US calendar, it's worth noting that the positioning squeeze means the dollar is in a less oversold position and therefore faces more balanced risks, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
"Yesterday's US data was mixed. On the positive side, the US goods trade deficit narrowed sharply to $86.0bn in June from $96.4bn in May, driven by a 4.2% MoM drop in imports, while exports declined only 0.6%. Conference Board consumer confidence was also stronger than expected, although the current conditions index deteriorated, led by job market concerns. That was confirmed by soft JOLTS numbers."
"Today, expect the ADP jobs figures to attract some interest despite their poor predictive ability for official payrolls, but the biggest release is the advanced 2Q GDP report. The narrower June trade deficit reported yesterday underpins our economists' call for a 3.3% annualized growth, above the 2.5% consensus. Expect personal consumption figures to be in focus after the very soft 0.5% 1Q print. The latest consumer confidence figures are consistent with real consumer spending around 1-1.5%. The core PCE is the other major component to watch: it's expected at 2.3% QoQ."
"Following these releases, the Fed will take canter stage. A hold is the consensus call and markets are pricing near-zero probability of a cut. We doubt the conditions for a dovish shift are in place, and we suspect market pricing for September (-16bp) may be challenged by a broadly unchanged stance by the FOMC. Chair Powell is likely to face questions regarding his position amid increased political pressure from President Trump to cut rates or step down. To date, Powell has provided no indication of a policy shift, and we expect a reaffirmation of the Fed's independence alongside his commitment to remain in office. This, combined with a stronger-than-expected GDP print, can add fuel to the dollar's good momentum."
Created
: 2025.07.30
Last updated
: 2025.07.30
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy