EUR/CHF weakens as Euro slides on 'unbalanced' transatlantic deal

• The Euro comes under broad pressure amid skepticism surrounding the weekend's US‑EU trade pact.
• Markets see the deal as economically skewed in favor of the United States, increasing long-term pressure on European export sectors.
• France's Prime Minister calls the deal an act of "submission," while the Trade Minister warns Europe must not settle for "being less than an economic power."

The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday as markets assess the broader implications of the newly announced US‑EU trade framework. The Euro is under broad pressure, as investors view the deal as one-sided and economically burdensome for the European Union (EU).

The EUR/CHF cross extends its intraday descent during the American trading hours, pressured by persistent Euro weakness and steady demand for the Swiss Franc. At the time of writing, the pair is hovering around 0.9315, down nearly 0.22% on the day.

The agreement, announced Sunday following talks between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, imposes a flat 15% tariff on a wide range of EU exports, replacing the previously threatened 30% levy. In return, the EU has committed to purchasing $250 billion in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually, totaling roughly $750 billion over three years. The deal also outlines a $600 billion EU investment package in the US, focusing on strategic sectors such as clean energy, defense equipment, and manufacturing. However, the agreement leaves existing steel and aluminum tariffs at 50%, officials hinted that a quota-based system could replace them in future negotiations.

While the deal helped avoid an immediate trade war, many fear it could hurt the long-term competitiveness of major European industries. The agreement has already sparked criticism within the EU, especially from France, adding to market uncertainty.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou described the agreement as an act of "submission" and a "dark day for Europe," warning that the EU's long-term sovereignty and economic leverage may have been compromised. Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin told FranceInter radio on Monday that he did not want Paris "to settle with what happened yesterday because that would be accepting that Europe is not an economic power." "This deal is not balanced, so we will have to keep working," he said.

From a technical perspective, EUR/CHF is edging lower, trading around 0.9316, as bearish momentum resurfaces following a rejection near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which also serves as the middle Bollinger Band at 0.9327. Despite the modest decline, the broader trend remains muted, reflecting the pair's prolonged period of consolidation.

On a wider perspective, EUR/CHF has been stuck in a narrow range between 0.9430 and 0.9300 since late April, unable to sustain directional momentum in either direction. Repeated attempts to break above the 0.9430 ceiling have failed, while dips toward the 0.9300 floor have consistently found buyers. Bollinger Bands are compressing, a sign of declining volatility and potential for an eventual breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.84, showing a slight bearish tilt without entering oversold territory, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 21.14 signals weak trend strength, in line with the range-bound structure.

A sustained break below the 0.9300 support level would mark a bearish shift, potentially exposing downside levels around 0.9250. On the flip side, a bounce from current levels and a close above the 20-day SMA could see the cross reattempt the upper range boundary near 0.9430, with the next resistance seen at the psychological 0.9500 level.