CFTC: US June's suggest a significant pick up in activity - Rabobank

US Dollar (USD) net short positions have decreased for the fourth consecutive week, driven by an increase in long positions. Euro (EUR) net long positions have decreased, driven by an increase in short positions. Pound Sterling (GBP) net long positions have decreased for the second week in a row, driven by an increase in short positions, and Japanese Yen (JPY) net long positions have increased, driven by a decrease in short positions, Rabobank's FX analysts Jane Foley and Molly Schwartz report.

USD has been the best-performing G10 currency month-to-date

"US retail sales data for June suggested a significant pick up in activity from -0.9% m/m to 0.6% m/m, while PPI data indicated slowing price pressures from 0.1% m/m to 0.0% m/m. This upcoming week is the FOMC rate decision. The market and ourselves are forecasting a no change decision and see the rate at 4.50%. USD has been the best-performing G10 currency month-to-date, but the worst year-to-date."

"Final estimates for June Eurozone CPI inflation m/m registered in line with prior prints at 0.3% m/m and 2.3% y/y. Over the weekend the US and the EU agreed to a trade framework which included a 15% baseline tariff and a commitment to purchase $750b of US energy. Elsewhere, UK CPI inflation printed hotter than expected at 0.3% m/m, filtering through to 3.6% y/y. This was followed by disappointing unemployment data the day after. The market is pricing in more than 93% of a 25bp cut at the August 7 policy meeting."

"Japanese Nationwide CPI inflation data for June printed at 3.3% y/y. The US and Japan agreed to a trade framework which includes a commitment from Japan to invest $550b into American industries and a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. JPY has been the worst performing G10 currency month-to-date."