USD/CHF steadies below 0.8000 amid resilient US data and easing trade fears

• The Swiss Franc extends losses for the third straight day as the US Dollar regains momentum.
• Renewed global trade optimism boosts risk appetite, weighing on demand for safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss Franc.
• US President Donald Trump signals trade progress, stating that "most deals are finished" and notes that 10-15% tariffs are being set via official letters.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) loses ground for a third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, pressured by improving risk sentiment and a rebound in the US Dollar. Optimism over global trade developments is fueling the appetite for risk assets, undermining demand for traditional safe havens, such as the Swiss Franc. Meanwhile, the US Dollar finds fresh support from resilient US economic data and firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at its policy decision next Wednesday.

At the time of writing, the USD/CHF pair is hovering around 0.7963, recovering modestly after falling to a near three-week low earlier in the week. Despite the mid-week rebound, the pair remains confined within this week's range and is still down nearly 0.80% for the week. The pair remains under pressure below the key 0.8000 psychological mark, well beneath the weekly high of 0.8226 set on Monday.

Trade optimism continues to support broader risk sentiment, helping the US Dollar recover lost ground. This week, the US finalized several bilateral agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, lifting hopes of a broader shift away from protectionist policies. On Friday, US President Donald Trump signaled that "most of the trade deals are finished," noting that many are now formalized through letters specifying tariff rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Trump also said there is a "50-50 chance" of reaching a deal with the European Union, while EU diplomats hinted that a framework agreement could materialize as early as this weekend. He further added that the U.S. is "nearing" a trade deal with China, reinforcing optimism that a more stable global trade environment may be taking shape.

However, Trump maintained a firm tone on Canada, suggesting limited progress on trade talks with the northern neighbor. "I haven't had a lot of luck with Canada," he said on Friday, adding that he may impose a unilateral tariff rate without further negotiation. "There's not a lot of negotiating, and I'm not focused on a deal with Canada," he added, signaling that a trade agreement is unlikely in the near term.

On the data front, this week's US releases have painted a mixed but broadly resilient macroeconomic picture, offering additional support to the US Dollar. Initial Jobless Claims came in below expectations, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains tight and continues to underpin household spending. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dipped into contraction territory. In contrast, the Services PMI held firm above 52.0, helping to cushion overall business activity. In contrast, the Services PMI remained in expansionary territory, highlighting continued strength in consumer-driven segments of the economy. Durable goods orders in the US dropped 9.3% in June, reversing May's big 16.5% gain. The decline was slightly better than the -10.8% forecast, mainly due to a sharp drop in aircraft orders.