USD sentiment slips on tariff, Fed focus - Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is mixed against its major currency peers. The USD is up a little against the GBP, JPY, AUD and NZD but has lost marginal ground against the EUR, CAD and CHF as trading here gets going, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

USD mixed versus majors

"The DXY is slightly lower, holding near yesterday's session low at 97.7 which was in effect a retest of last Wednesday slump low in the index around the Powell firing reports. We think the USD's broader rebound seen through the first half of the month has stalled and may be reversing which could signal a resumption of the USD's broader decline. Broader dollar sentiment is weakening again, as reflected in dollar index risk reversal pricing slipping back to reflect a mild premium for 1- and 3-month USD puts relative to calls. Tariff uncertainty ahead of August 1 and rising long-run inflation concerns, prompted by the perception that Fed policy independence may be at risk, are weighing on USD sentiment."

"The Fed's communication blackout is in force ahead of the July 30th FOMC but there are two officials speaking today. Fed Chair Powell delivers "opening remarks" at a Fed conference while Governor Bowman is speaking with OpenAI CEO Altman. Powell might have some interesting things to say but neither should be speaking about the policy outlook. For those of a nervous disposition, these are unsettling times, it would seem. While questions remain over President Trump's relationship with the Fed Chair and all that that might entail moving forward, tariffs remain a threat to global trade and short-term (at least) price stability yet stocks continue to push higher."

"There are charts circulating comparing recent moves in the S&P 500 with 2007/2008 developments in the index. Who knows if that is any sort of warning? But it is clear that NYSE market breadth remains pretty poor--fewer stocks are driving broader index gains--which is not a great sign of health and we are right on the cusp of that time of the year when US equities typically hit a bit of an air pocket. FX correlations with risk have normalized after an extended period in the spring when the USD tended to weaken with softer USD-denominated assets. But volatility might still be a test for the USD."