Created
: 2025.07.17
2025.07.17 13:36
Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday and moves further away from a three-week top, around the $3,377 area touched the previous day. US President Donald Trump denied reports that he is planning to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Apart from this, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will delay cutting interest rates assists the US Dollar (USD) to regain positive traction and reverse Wednesday's pullback from its highest level since June 23. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen undermining the precious metal.
That said, persistent uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies and their impact on the global economy keep investors on edge. This might continue to offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price and warrants caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further depreciating move. Investors now look to the release of US Retail Sales and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members should drive the USD demand and produce trading opportunities around the non-yielding yellow metal.
From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action since the beginning of this month points to indecision among traders. Furthermore, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Hence, any further slide is more likely to find some support near the $3,322-$3,320 horizontal zone ahead of the $3,300 round figure. Some follow-through selling below the $3,283-3,282 region, or a one-week low touched last Tuesday, would lead to the Gold price accelerating the corrective fall towards the July swing low, around the $3,248-3,247 zone.
On the flip side, the $3,365-3,366 region could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,377 area, or the overnight high, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the commodity further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 area.
Gold has played a key role in human's history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn't rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country's solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Created
: 2025.07.17
Last updated
: 2025.07.17
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