GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Crucial upside barrier emerges near 200.00

• GBP/JPY trades with mild gains around 199.45 in Wednesday's early European session.
• The constructive outlook of the cross remains intact above the key 100-day EMA, with the bullish RSI indicator. 
• The key resistance level emerges at 200.00; the first support level to watch is 198.11.

The GBP/JPY cross trades with mild gains around 199.45 during the early European session on Wednesday. The hotter-than-expected UK June CPI inflation report provides some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The attention will shift to the UK employment data, which will be released on Thursday. 

Technically, the constructive outlook of GBP/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 60.80, suggesting that further upside looks favorable. 

On the bright side, the key upside barrier for the cross emerges at 200.00, representing the psychological level and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for the crucial resistance level at 200.75, the high of May 28, 2024. Further north, the additional upside filter to watch is 204.23, the high of July 19, 2024.

In the bearish case, the initial support level for the GBP/JPY is seen at 198.11, the low of July 14. A breach of this level could drag the cross toward 196.00, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The crucial contention level is located at 194.65, the 100-day EMA. 

GBP/JPY daily chart