USD/JPY Price Forecast: Eyes breakout as triangle narrows, but lacks momentum

• The USD/JPY trades near 144.50 on Friday, amid thin liquidity, as US markets remain closed for Independence Day.
• Weekly candle shaping up as a long-legged doji, signaling strong indecision and potential breakout.
• The 50-day EMA at 144.90 acts as immediate resistance, while Initial support rests at Thursday's low near 143.50.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading slightly lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday, with the USD/JPY hovering around 144.50 in subdued holiday-thinned conditions as US markets remain closed for Independence Day.

Despite the intraday dip, USD/JPY remains comfortably above the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, marked by lower highs and higher lows since April. This suggests a slightly positive outlook ahead of the weekly close, particularly with the weekly candle forming a long-legged doji, indicating the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

The symmetrical triangle pattern suggests that while neither bulls nor bears have taken firm control, as price approaches the triangle's apex. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently hovering around 144.90, acts as immediate resistance. A clear break above this confluence zone could pave the way for a bullish move toward the upper boundary of the triangle, the 146.50-147.00 region.

On the downside, initial support lies near Thursday's low of 143.50, which closely aligns with the ascending trendline forming the base of the triangle. A daily close below this level would tilt the short-term bias in favor of sellers, potentially paving the way for a decline toward the 142.50 level marked on July 1, followed by the April swing low near 139.89.

From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering near 49, indicating a balanced market. However, the RSI is showing a mild downward slope, suggesting fading bullish momentum and light selling pressure as the pair drifts lower within the previous day's range.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains flat and lacks direction. The MACD line is marginally below the signal line, and the histogram continues to narrow, reflecting subdued momentum. This reinforces the view that traders are staying cautious and awaiting a clear catalyst before placing fresh bets.