Created
: 2025.07.04
- English
- English
- What's Myforex
- Share
- Use tools
- Get information
- What's New
- Help center
- About us
- Customer support
- Terms and policies
-
-
PortfolioShare your portfolio and performance in real time -
Events & contestsEvents and contests held by retail brokers around the world
-
-
Real-time spread comparisonCompare spreads of major retail brokers in real time -
Volatility analysisVisualize volatility as a measure of daily market activity -
Swap point comparisonCompare buy and sell swap values for each broker by symbol -
Market rates & chartsCheck prices for all instruments offered by each broker -
IndicatorsProviding in-house developed indicators for MT4/MT5 -
Trading calculatorsCalculation tools for each broker to help you trade
-
-
World FX newsLatest news on forex and cryptocurrencies from around the world -
Broker informationTrading information of retail brokers worldwide -
MetaTrader4/5 user guideUser guide collection for the latest MetaTrader4/5 -
Economic calendarRelease calendar for indicators from official sources of major economies
USD/CAD struggles below 1.3600, over two-week low; bears not ready to give up yet
World FX news
Breaking news
USD/CAD struggles below 1.3600, over two-week low; bears not ready to give up yet
New
2025.07.04 11:00
2025.07.04 11:00
2025.07.04 11:00
- USD/CAD struggles to register any meaningful recovery and hangs near a multi-week low.
- US fiscal concerns cap the post-NFP USD rally and act as a headwind for the currency pair.
- Oil prices preserve weekly gains and underpin the Loonie, contributing to capping the pair.
The USD/CAD pair oscillated in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday and remains close to a nearly three-week low touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3575 area, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up that followed the release of a stronger-than-expected headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report amid US fiscal concerns. US President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill cleared its final hurdle in Congress on Thursday. The legislation is estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the nation's debt and to explode the federal deficit. This, in turn, caps the recent USD recovery from a multi-year low and acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices struggle to lure buyers amid expectations that the OPEC+ will announce an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in production for August. The black liquid, however, manages to preserve weekly gains and underpins the commodity-linked Loonie, contributing to capping the USD/CAD pair. That said, persistent trade-related uncertainties might hold back traders from placing aggressive directional bets heading into the weekend, and relatively thin trading volumes on the back of the US Independence Day holiday.
From a technical perspective, the formation of a descending channel points to a well-established short-term downtrend. This, along with negative oscillators, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the downside. Bearish traders, however, might wait for a sustained break below the trend-channel support before placing fresh bets and positioning for an extension of the fall witnessed over the past two weeks or so.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Last updated
: 2025.07.04
Related articles
WTI wobbles around $66 as Trump's tariff deadline looms large
2025.07.04 16:30Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
2025.07.04 15:03WTI falls to near $66.00 due to concerns over weakening Oil demand
2025.07.04 11:25USD/CAD struggles below 1.3600, over two-week low; bears not ready to give up yet
2025.07.04 10:59OIL Price Forecast: WTI approaches the range top at the $67.00 area
2025.07.03 20:20OPEC+ expected to go with another large supply hike - ING
2025.07.03 17:40
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
Was this article helpful?
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.
Most viewed
GBP/USD: Expected to continue to range trade - UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to continue to range trade US Dollar (USD); firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 1.3620/1.3715.
New
2025.07.04 18:49EUR/USD: Speed bumps on the road - OCBC
Euro (EUR) slipped overnight, consistent with our caution for slower pace of gains or even some consolidation in the interim. ECB minutes overnight highlighted concerns of EUR's appreciation and higher tariff that may affect exports.
New
2025.07.04 18:45Strong CHF pressures SNB to act - ING
The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains strong, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
New
2025.07.04 18:37EUR/USD: Expected to trade in a range between 1.1730 and 1.1805 - UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a range between 1.1730 and 1.1805. In the longer run, upward momentum is slowing rapidly, but there is a slim chance for EUR to rise toward 1.1830 before a more sustained and notable pullback is likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
2025.07.04 18:30Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Friday, according to FXStreet data.
New
2025.07.04 18:30EUR: Strong Euro is getting the ECB's attention - ING
Markets are starting to hear a little more from the European Central Bank about the strength of the Euro (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
New
2025.07.04 18:24AUD/USD drifts to 0.6550 as concerns about US tariffs resurface
The Australian Dollar is trading lower for the second day in a row, retreating from year-to-date highs, at 0.6590, with risk-sensitive assets weighed by growing tariff uncertainty as the July 9 deadline comes closer.US President Donald Trump affirmed on Thursday that he will start sending letters to
New
2025.07.04 17:37GBP/JPY pulls back to levels near 197.00 as market sentiment sours
The Yen rallies across the board as fears about US tariffs return.Trump will start sending letters to trade partners informing them about tariffs.BoJ-BoE monetary policy divergence is adding pressure on the British Pound.
New
2025.07.04 16:57EUR/GBP rises above 0.8600 following hawkish comments from ECB's Lagarde
EUR/GBP inches higher after registering 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 0.8610 during the early European hours on Friday.
New
2025.07.04 16:56EUR/USD bounces up as focus shifts to tariffs, US fiscal health
The EUR/USD pair is trimming some losses on Friday, trading at 1.1785 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows of 1.1715 on Thursday.
New
2025.07.04 16:47Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy
