Dow Jones Industrial Average settles in late-week lull as key US data looms ahead

• The Dow Jones treaded water on Friday following a late-week holiday closure.
• Major equity indexes are awaiting key US economic data next week.
• Fed rate cut expectations are creeping back to the forefront.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) held steady on Friday, sticking to chart territory just above the 42,000 major price handle. US equities are increasingly pivoting toward Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, and a series of key US data releases next week will draw increased investor attention.

Coming up next week: PMIs, Fedspeak, PCE inflation

The next batch of S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures will kick things off next Monday. Aggregated business sentiment figures are expected to ease slightly in both the Services and Manufacturing components.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also begins his two-day testimony before congressional and Senate financial committees on Tuesday. There will be significant pressure on the Fed head to explain why the Fed is so concerned about policy uncertainty, but not worried enough to deliver rate cuts that could alleviate some of the US's debt servicing costs.

May's iteration of the Fed's favored inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), will also be released next week, due on Friday. Policy makers and policy watchers are both bracing for potential economic fallout from the Trump administration's tariff policies, and the post-tariff window on trade, manufacturing, and consumption is widening as headline datasets begin to include dates after President Trump's self-styled "Liberation Day" tariffs.

Read more stock news: US stocks open higher as Fed governor calls for rate cuts on Triple Witching Day

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains mired in a near-term consolidation phase. The major equity index is churning chart paper just above the 42,000 price handle, but intraday prices are still finding technical support from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,770.

Dow Jones daily chart