Select Language

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Keep a bearish vibe, crucial support level emerges near 98.00

Breaking news

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Keep a bearish vibe, crucial support level emerges near 98.00

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.06.18 16:25
US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Keep a bearish vibe, crucial support level emerges near 98.00

update 2025.06.18 16:25

  • The US Dollar Index trades on a weaker note near 98.55 in Wednesday's early European session, losing 0.28% on the day. 
  • The negative outlook of the index remains in play below the 100-day EMA with a bearish RSI indicator. 
  • First support level to watch is in the 98.00-97.90 zone; key resistance level to watch is the 100.00 psychological level. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, attracts some sellers to around 98.55 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders continue to assess the conflict between Israel and Iran ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on interest rates later on Wednesday.

According to the daily chart, the bearish outlook of the DXY remains intact, with the index holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Further downside looks favorable as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 43.80.

The initial support level for the USD index is located in the 98.00-97.90 zone, representing the psychological level and the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could expose 97.61, the low of June 12. A breach of this level could see a drop to 96.55, the low of February 25, 2022. 

On the other hand, the key resistance level for the DXY emerges at 100.00, portraying the psychological figure and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level could pave the way to 101.65, the 100-day EMA. The next upside barrier is seen at 101.98, the high of May 12. 

US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart

US Dollar FAQs

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the 'de facto' currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world's reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed's 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed's weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.



Date

Created

 : 2025.06.18

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.18

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 227K last week

The US Department of Labour (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance fell to 227K for the week ending July 5.
New
update2025.07.10 21:36

Gold rises for second consecutive day as trade tensions intensify

Gold (XAU/USD) is ticking up slightly on Thursday, benefiting from escalating global trade tensions as recent tariff announcements from US President Trump have rekindled investors' appetite for bullion as a traditional safe-haven asset.
New
update2025.07.10 21:03

US Dollar steady amid Trump's trade escalation, cautious Fed

The US Dollar (USD) holds its footing on Thursday after a weak start to the day, as investors digest fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.
New
update2025.07.10 20:59

JPY is steady on the day - Scotiabank

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is quietly consolidating its recent pullback, attempting to find support following a poor start to July, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.07.10 20:51

GBP up modestly in quiet trade - Scotiabank

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.2% and outperforming most of the G10 currencies in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.07.10 20:47

EUR/GBP wobbles around 0.8630 amid uncertainty over US-EU trade deal

The EUR/GBP pair trades in a tight range around 0.8625 during the European trading session on Thursday.
New
update2025.07.10 20:47

USD/CHF pares previous losses and returns above 0.7950 amid a stronger US Dollar

The US Dollar is featuring a moderate recovery on Thursday, paring some losses after the previous two days' reversal. The pair, however, remains trading near long-term lows, with upside attempts capped below the 0.8000 psychological level.
New
update2025.07.10 20:41

EUR consolidates in low 1.17s - Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating in the low 1.17s and extending this week's narrow range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.07.10 20:32

CAD is little changed on the day - Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains range-bound but has made a little progress overnight, reflecting the generally softer US Dollar (USD) undertone, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.07.10 20:26

USD slips as markets digest tariff news - Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little more defensively overall this morning as markets digest the latest round of US tariff news--a hefty 50% on copper and 50% on Brazil, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.07.10 20:24

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel