Created
: 2025.05.30
2025.05.30 10:56
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing its recent gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued following the release of disappointing economic data from Australia.
Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales declined by 0.1% month-over-month in April, against the expectations of remaining consistent at 0.3% growth. Meanwhile, the monthly Building Permits fell by 5.7%, against the expected increase of 3.1%.
The AUD/USD pair continues to receive downward pressure after a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan halted US President Donald Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. The federal court found that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful. However, Trump appears unlikely to back down, posting on his social media app Truth Social that he is on a "Mission from God".
In Australia's close trading partner, China, Securities Times reports that analysts believe that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) may boost Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL). This move would offer low-cost, long-term funding to policy banks, which in turn support government-prioritized sectors like housing, urban redevelopment, and major infrastructure projects.
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6430 on Friday, indicating a potential of weakening bullish bias. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the pair is hovering around the ascending channel's lower boundary. The short-term price momentum weakens as the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish bias is still active.
The AUD/USD pair could test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6439, followed by the 0.6537, a six-month high recorded on May 26. A breach above this crucial resistance zone could revive the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6640.
On the downside, a break below the channel could lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6385. A breach below this level could weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to approach 0.5914, the lowest since March 2020.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.27% | 0.07% | 0.22% | -0.10% | -0.11% | |
EUR | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.38% | -0.01% | 0.18% | 0.15% | -0.18% | |
GBP | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.35% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.00% | -0.15% | |
JPY | 0.27% | 0.38% | 0.35% | 0.34% | 0.58% | 0.33% | 0.22% | |
CAD | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.34% | 0.23% | -0.04% | -0.18% | |
AUD | -0.22% | -0.18% | -0.21% | -0.58% | -0.23% | -0.03% | -0.36% | |
NZD | 0.10% | -0.15% | -0.00% | -0.33% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.33% | |
CHF | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.15% | -0.22% | 0.18% | 0.36% | 0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The Retail Sales data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in Australia. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri May 30, 2025 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.1%
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The primary gauge of Australia's consumer spending, the Retail Sales, is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) about 35 days after the month ends. It accounts for approximately 80% of total retail turnover in the country and, therefore, has a significant bearing on inflation and GDP. This leading indicator has a direct correlation with inflation and the growth prospects, impacting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rates decision and AUD valuation. The stats bureau uses the forward factor method, ensuring that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.
Created
: 2025.05.30
Last updated
: 2025.05.30
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