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: 2025.05.26
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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs beyond mid-162.00s, bulls have the upper hand while above 200-day SMA
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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs beyond mid-162.00s, bulls have the upper hand while above 200-day SMA
New
2025.05.26 14:27
2025.05.26 14:27
2025.05.26 14:27
- EUR/JPY kicks off the new week on a stronger note in reaction to the latest trade optimism.
- The technical setup warrants some caution for bulls amid the divergent BoJ-ECB expectations.
- A convincing break below the 200-day SMA would shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.
The EUR/JPY cross gains strong positive traction at the start of a new week and snaps a three-day losing streak to the 161.00 neighborhood, or a nearly one-month low set on Friday. US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of tariffs on the European Union (EU) boosts the shared currency and lifts spot prices to the 162.70-162.75 region during the Asian session.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/JPY cross showed some resilience below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Friday. The subsequent move up favors bullish traders, though neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution amid the divergent Bank of Japan (BoJ)-European Central Bank (ECB) policy expectations and geopolitical risks, which tends to benefit the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY).
Hence, the strong intraday move higher might confront stiff resistance near the 163.00 round-figure mark. A sustained strength beyond, however, will suggest that the recent pullback from the 165.20 area, or the year-to-date high touched earlier this month has run its course and pave the way for further gains. The EUR/JPY cross might then aim to surpass the 163.40-163.45 supply zone and reclaim the 164.00 mark.
On the flip side, weakness below the 162.40 immediate support could attract some dip-buyers and remain limited near the 162.00 mark. This is followed by the 200-day SMA, around the 161.45 region, which, if broken decisively, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. The EUR/JPY cross might then slide to retest Friday's swing low, around the 161.00 round figure, and eventually drop to the 160.00 psychological mark.
EUR/JPY daily chart
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During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Last updated
: 2025.05.26
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2025.05.30 14:37Disclaimer:
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