US Dollar Index falls toward 99.50 as Fed officials express economic concerns

• US Dollar Index declines as Fed officials highlighted a drop in both business and consumer confidence.
• Atlanta Fed Bostic alerted that the inconsistent and shifting tariff policies by the Trump administration risk disrupting US trade logistics.
• The US Dollar has extended its losses since Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is extending its losses for the third successive session and trading lower at around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The Greenback depreciates, pressured by cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding the economic outlook and business sentiment.

San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated growing concerns about the US economy. While key economic indicators remain robust, both officials pointed to deteriorating business and consumer confidence, attributing part of the sentiment shift to US trade policy.

Meanwhile, no Fed official agreed to ease tightening amid an ongoing economic slowdown in the United States (US). On Monday, the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he favors one cut in 2025. Bostic also warned that the inconsistent and shifting tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration risk disrupting US trade logistics, which are heavily dependent on large-scale imports to satisfy domestic demand.

The US Dollar continues to struggle since Moody's announced its downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move follows similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor's in 2011.

Moody's also forecasts US federal debt to rise to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to increase to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.