Dow Jones Industrial Average settles slightly lower on tepid Wednesday

• The Dow Jones shed another 100 points on Wednesday, easing back toward 42,000.
• A midweek lull in data releases and major headlines is giving equity markets a breather.
• US PPI inflation, Retail Sales, and UoM consumer survey results still lurk ahead this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) eased slightly lower on Wednesday, slipping back toward the 42,000 handle as equity markets spin in place during a calm midweek market session. Most of the major equity indexes have clawed back YTD losses, thanks in no small part to a determined bullish tilt in tech stocks.

There is a notable gap between key data releases this week, and traders are getting some room to breathe before the next batch of figures drops. United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data is slated for Thursday, alongside US Retail Sales. Annualized PPI is expected to ease slightly to 3.1% from 3.3%, while April's MoM figure is expected to tick up to 0.3% from -0.1%. Retail Sales in April are also expected to ease to a flat 0.0% from March's revised 1.5%.

Tariffs impacts still to come

Market experts warned that this April's dual inflation prints this week could be the last bright spot on the years-long inflation fight. According to analysts, economic impacts from the Trump administration's ham-handed trade strategies are expected to begin showing up in the data in May. Even as the Trump team explores pulling back on its own tariff policies, the Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) on most countries will hold above 13%, a number that has typically averaged somewhere near 2.5% in the past. Even with the White House's cancellation of triple-digit tariffs on China, the US's ETR on Chinese goods is expected to remain over 30% for the next quarter. Despite President Donald Trump's insistence that "other countries" will be paying the tariffs, import taxes are generally charged at the entry point into the domestic economy and extracted from domestic businesses, who tend to pass those costs onto consumers directly.

In the face of rising costs being levied directly against the US by its own administration, Friday's University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index is unlikely to show much improvement. US consumers are growing increasingly apprehensive about their economic outlook and income expectations. However, median market forecasts are hoping for a slight uptick in the UoM's key sentiment reading, with the index expected to tick up to 53.4 from its two-year low of 52.2.

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Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones has stopped its early-week ascent, slowing down and resting near 42,000. The major equity index is still up around 1.15% this week and has recovered approximately 14% since the significant drop to the 36,600 area in early April. This week's topside breach of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 41,500 has shifted the Dow Jones back into bullish territory, prompting buyers to aim for continued momentum to push prices back towards record highs exceeding 45,000.

Dow Jones daily chart