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: 2025.05.14
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EUR/USD: Cyclical versus structural challenges - ING
Breaking news
EUR/USD: Cyclical versus structural challenges - ING
New
2025.05.14 17:56
2025.05.14 17:56
2025.05.14 17:56
The dollar is doing its best to unwind April's sharp losses, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
Support can be found at 1.09/1.10 now
"The temporary reductions in tariffs - pointing at room for negotiation - have helped a 5% risk premium come out of the dollar. But this year's rally in EUR/USD was not entirely driven by trade. EU fiscal stimulus drove a good part of the Feb/March rally and should be reason enough for support to be found at 1.09/1.10 now."
"The market's pricing of just 55bp of Fed rate cuts this year seems quite modest now. We think the Fed could start with a 25bp rate cut in September and bring the policy rate down towards the 3.50% area next year. The European Central Bank will likely cut by 25bp on two occasions - probably in June and September."
"Evidence on the structural de-dollarisation theme will be hard to come by, but the theme will undoubtedly weigh on the dollar."
Last updated
: 2025.05.14
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