Chinese Copper imports have reached their limit - Commerzbank

In April, China imported a record-breaking 2.92 million tons of Copper ore and concentrate. Over the last 12 months, a total of 28.8 million tons were imported, which is also a record high. China's Copper imports have changed significantly in recent years, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Between 2010 and 2024, imports increase by over 300%

"While in 2010 China imported around 1.5 times more Copper ore and concentrate than unwrought Copper and Copper products, this ratio has now risen to over five. Between 2010 and 2024, imports of ore and concentrate increased by over 300%, whereas imports of unwrought Copper and products only increased by 30% in total over the same period. Consequently, domestic production of Copper products increased significantly during this period, more than doubling."

"However, current record levels of Copper ore and concentrate imports should not obscure the fact that import growth has slowed significantly in recent months. Even though April did show a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, examining a 12-month period reveals that import momentum has cooled, falling from around 9% growth in April last year to 2.4% today."

"However, this may be more due to the global supply of Copper ore than demand from China. According to the US Geological Survey, supply increased by just 1.8% last year, and China imported around 65% of all global Copper ore and concentrate in 2023."