EUR/GBP rises to near 0.8500, dovish ECB tone caps upside

• EUR/GBP remains under pressure as markets increasingly anticipate further ECB rate cuts, potentially as soon as June.
• The European Commission has initiated a public consultation proposing potential countermeasures to US-imposed tariffs.
• The Pound Sterling strengthens after US President Donald Trump announces a new US-UK trade agreement.

EUR/GBP halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 0.8490 during early European hours on Friday. However, the pair's upside may be capped as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure amid growing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), possibly as early as the June meeting. While ECB officials remain optimistic that inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target by year-end, concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook persist.

In trade developments, the European Commission has launched a public consultation outlining potential countermeasures in response to US tariffs. The proposal targets up to €95 billion worth of US imports should trade negotiations fail, just shy of the €100 billion estimate reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday.

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated on Wednesday that the Commission would soon announce measures to counterbalance the economic impact of US tariffs. "Tomorrow we will announce the next preparatory steps, both in the area of possible rebalancing measures, and also in areas important for further discussions," he said. However, Sefcovic emphasized that the EU's primary focus remains on securing a negotiated agreement with the US, albeit not at any cost.

The EUR/GBP pair may also face pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gains support following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a US-UK trade deal. While the agreement retains the 10% tariffs on British goods, it includes US procurement access and delays decisions on UK market access for US agriculture and beef, pointing to a modest initial scope.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, in line with expectations. However, the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone, stating that policy support will be withdrawn gradually and rates will remain restrictive as long as needed to control inflation risks.

In a surprise move, two policymakers voted to keep rates unchanged, signaling a cautious approach. As a result, investors have modestly revised their expectations, now pricing in around 59 basis points of rate cuts by year-end.