Created
: 2025.05.05
- English
- English
- What's Myforex
- Share
- Use tools
- Get information
- What's New
- Help center
- About us
- Customer support
- Terms and policies
-
-
PortfolioShare your portfolio and performance in real time -
Events & contestsEvents and contests held by retail brokers around the world
-
-
Real-time spread comparisonCompare spreads of major retail brokers in real time -
Volatility analysisVisualize volatility as a measure of daily market activity -
Swap point comparisonCompare buy and sell swap values for each broker by symbol -
Market rates & chartsCheck prices for all instruments offered by each broker -
IndicatorsProviding in-house developed indicators for MT4/MT5 -
Trading calculatorsCalculation tools for each broker to help you trade
-
-
World FX newsLatest news on forex and cryptocurrencies from around the world -
Broker informationTrading information of retail brokers worldwide -
MetaTrader4/5 user guideUser guide collection for the latest MetaTrader4/5 -
Economic calendarRelease calendar for indicators from official sources of major economies
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Moves back above mid-1.1300s, 200-period SMA on H4 holds the key
World FX news
Breaking news
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Moves back above mid-1.1300s, 200-period SMA on H4 holds the key
New
2025.05.05 13:48
2025.05.05 13:48
2025.05.05 13:48
- EUR/USD regains positive traction on Monday amid the emergence of fresh USD selling.
- Last week's breakdown below the 100-period SMA on the H4 warrants caution for bulls.
- Bears might now wait for weakness below the 1.1265 region before placing fresh bets.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and climbs back closer to mid-1.1300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). The mixed technical setup, however, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from a three-week low, around the 1.1265 region touched last Thursday.
Last week's breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart - for the first time since early April - was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Oscillators on the daily chart are holding in bullish territory and have again started gaining positive traction on hourly charts. Hence, some follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the EUR/USD pair's recent corrective pullback from the 1.1575 area, or the highest level since November 2021 touched last week, has run its course.
In the meantime, the aforementioned support breakpoint, currently pegged near the 1.1375 area, might now act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 1.1400 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow the EUR/USD pair to surpass the 1.1425-1.1430 intermediate barrier and aim toward reclaiming the 1.1500 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards challenging the multi-year peak, around the 1.1575 region touched on April 2021 en route to the 1.0600 mark.
On the flip side, acceptance below the 1.1300 mark, leading to a subsequent break through the 1.1270-1.1265 region, or the multi-week low touched last Thursday, will reaffirm the negative bias. The EUR/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the 1.1200 round figure en route to the 1.1160-1.1155 area. The next relevant support is pegged near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around the 1.1125 zone, which if broken decisively should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates - or the expectation of higher rates - will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB's 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone's economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Last updated
: 2025.05.05
Related articles
Trump administration sets Wednesday deadline for trade offers from other countries
22 minutes agoBoE's Mann: Impact of QT is a more salient issue now BoE is cutting rates.
29 minutes agoGBP/USD steadies near 1.3540 as the US Dollar struggles under global pressure
31 minutes agoFed's Goolsbee: Rates can come down over 12-18 months
34 minutes agoForex Today: Focus remains on US jobs data and EMU flash CPI
46 minutes agoEUR/USD reaches six-week high near 1.1450 as US Dollar slides on trade jitters
2025.06.03 03:40
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
Was this article helpful?
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.
Most viewed
Trump administration sets Wednesday deadline for trade offers from other countries
The Trump administration is reportedly working on delivering a final trade offer deadline set for this Wednesday.
New
2025.06.03 04:34BoE's Mann: Impact of QT is a more salient issue now BoE is cutting rates.
Bank of England's MPC (hawk) member Catherine Mann said that the bank should closely monitor the effects of its quantitative tightening (QT) programme on monetary and financial conditions, especially in light of the recent interest rate cuts.
New
2025.06.03 04:26GBP/USD steadies near 1.3540 as the US Dollar struggles under global pressure
The British Pound (GBP) bounces back at the start of the week, advancing against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and trimming last week's losses. The GBP/USD pair is rebounding modestly as investors pare back US Dollar holdings amid lingering uncertainty over the global economic outlook.
New
2025.06.03 04:24Fed's Goolsbee: Rates can come down over 12-18 months
On Monday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, expressed his belief that the Fed would eventually lower short-term rates once the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is resolved.
New
2025.06.03 04:21Forex Today: Focus remains on US jobs data and EMU flash CPI
The US Dollar (USD) faced increasing selling pressure in quite a negative start to the new trading week, slipping back to multi-week troughs amid the resurgence of trade concerns and jitters over the health of the US economy.
New
2025.06.03 04:09Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges over 5%, hits yearly high
Silver prices soar, gaining over 5% on Monday, as investors who had become risk-averse earlier pushed the grey metal higher. However, as market sentiment improved, buyers continued to drive XAG/USD higher, trading at $34.65 near year-to-date (YTD) highs.
New
2025.06.03 04:01EUR/USD reaches six-week high near 1.1450 as US Dollar slides on trade jitters
EUR/USD edges up during the North American session to hit a six-week high of 1.1449, poised to stay above 1.1400 as the US Dollar drops to levels last seen in April as the "Sell America" trade continues.
New
2025.06.03 03:40USD/JPY weakens as investors seek refuge in the Yen amid weak US PMI data
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as investors seek refuge in the Yen's safe-haven appeal.
New
2025.06.03 03:34Dow Jones Industrial Average struggles under the weight of fresh trade concerns
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) remains trapped in near-term congestion as trade woes weigh on investors and the new trading month kicks off on a cautious note.
New
2025.06.03 03:09WTI Price Forecast: Oil prices climb on weaker USD, geopolitical tension, WTI stalls near key resistance
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edges higher on Monday, kicking off the week on a firmer footing as a weaker US Dollar (USD) and persistent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to underpin market sentiment.
New
2025.06.03 02:09Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy
