Select Language

JPY: BoJ expresses more caution over delivering further rate hikes - MUFG

Breaking news

JPY: BoJ expresses more caution over delivering further rate hikes - MUFG

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.05.01 18:55
JPY: BoJ expresses more caution over delivering further rate hikes - MUFG

update 2025.05.01 18:55

The yen has weakened overnight following the BoJ's latest policy meeting. It has helped to lift USD/JPY back above 144.50 as the pair moves further above the low of 139.89 set on 22nd April. It follows the BoJ's decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.50% while the updated economic projections and risk assessment signaled more caution over delivering further rate hikes, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman reports.

BoJ trims GDP and inflation forecasts

"The BoJ's first updated economic projections since President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement revealed that the forecast for GDP growth in Japan for the current fiscal year was revised lower by 0.6ppts to 0.5% and for the next fiscal year by 0.3ppts to 0.7% before growth is expected to pick back up to 1.0% in FY2027. At the same time, the BoJ's updated projections for core inflation (excluding fresh food) were revised lowered by 0.2ppts to 2.2% for the current fiscal year and 0.3ppts for the next fiscal year after which it is expected to be close to the BoJ's target at 1.9% in FY2027. It supports the BoJ's decision to maintain guidance that it 'will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation' if its growth and inflation outlook materializes."

"While the BoJ is still signalling that it likely to raise rates further, it now judges that risks are skewed to the downside to both growth and inflation for the current and following fiscal years. The BoJ emphasized that they were facing "extremely high" uncertainties ahead. In the accompanying press conference, Governor Ueda stated that he expected the price trend improvement to stall temporarily and judged that that likelihood of their economic outlook materializing is not as high as before. He believes it is hard to say when they will have more confidence in the outlook which will be needed to hike rate again. The comments reinforce our perception of increased BoJ caution over raising rates further this year."   

"The updated economic projections and risk assessment has further encouraged market participants to push back expectations for the timing of the BoJ's next hike until the end of this year at the earliest. There are currently around 10bps of hikes priced in  by year end. A quick trade deal/agreement between Japan and the US to reverse/water down tariffs imposed on Japan would help to ease downside risks for Japan's economy directly although the BoJ would still likely remain concerned over downside risks to growth outside of Japan setting a higher hurdle for the BoJ to resume rate hikes this year. A slower pace of BoJ policy normalization will help to dampen yen strength in the near-term but is unlikely to reverse the current strengthening trend if global growth continues to slow and other major central banks including the Fed cut rates further resulting in yields spreads continuing to narrow between Japan and overseas."


Date

Created

 : 2025.05.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.05.01

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers initial losses despite US Dollar showing strength

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers a majority of its early gains and returns to near $32.50 during North American trading hours on Thursday.
New
update2025.05.02 00:08

USD/CAD ticks higher around 1.3820 despite USD Index gains sharply

The USD/CAD pair edges higher to near 1.3820 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The Loonie pair moves slightly higher despite the US Dollar (USD) has attracted significant bids after the release of the United States (US) ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.
New
update2025.05.01 23:46

US ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 48.7 in April vs. 48 expected

The business activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector continued to contracted in April, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edging lower to 48.7 from 49 in March. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 48.
New
update2025.05.01 23:06

US weekly Initial Jobless Claims rise to 241K vs. 224K expected

There were 241,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending April 26, the weekly data published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed on Thursday. This print followed the previous week's print of 223,000 (revised from 222,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 224,000.
New
update2025.05.01 21:37

USD's safe haven appeal fades as trade war backfires - Rabobank

Uncertainty may be a prevailing theme of the Trump presidency, but over the past month a number of lessons have been learnt which will likely have an ongoing impact on both the behaviour of politicians as well as investors.
New
update2025.05.01 21:16

JPY pushes lower by dovish BoJ pulling back on tightening clarity - Scotiabank

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.9% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies in response to the BoJ's latest policy meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2025.05.01 21:09

GBP quiet despite improvement in manufacturing PMI - Scotiabank

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Thursday's NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD), outperforming all the G10 currencies with the exception of Euro (EUR), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2025.05.01 21:07

CAD slips modestly on firmer USD - Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has slipped a little overnight after briefly probing sub-1.38 levels late yesterday. President Trump commented that PM Carney will visit Washington shortly and anticipated a 'great relationship' with Canada, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2025.05.01 21:03

US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Two-year yields below federal funds rate is signal that Fed should cut rates

United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business Network on Thursday the fact that the two-year US Treasury bond yield is below the federal funds rate is a signal that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should cut rates, per Reuters.
New
update2025.05.01 21:00

EUR recovers from sub-1.13 dip in quiet labour day trade - Scotiabank

Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday's NA session unchanged from Wednesday's close, finding modest support following a short-lived dip below 1.1300, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2025.05.01 21:00

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel