WTI falls to near $62.50 due to potential Iranian crude, OPEC+ production increase

• WTI price declines as progress in US-Iran nuclear talks raises the possibility of Iranian crude returning to the market.
• The potential for OPEC+ to increase production for a second consecutive month is adding further pressure on Oil prices.
• Oil sentiment may also be weighed down by signs of slowing demand from China.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading lower at around $62.70 per barrel during the European hours on Monday. Crude Oil prices continue to decline as progress in US-Iran nuclear talks raises the prospect of Iranian crude re-entering the market. Furthermore, expectations that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, could increase production for a second consecutive month have put additional pressure on Oil prices.

However, WTI prices could see some recovery, driven by hopes of easing US-China trade tensions. On Friday, China announced an exemption for certain US imports from its steep 125% tariffs, sparking optimism that the protracted trade dispute between the two largest economies might be nearing a resolution.

Additionally, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned on Sunday that the Trump administration is in daily discussions with China about tariffs. Rollins also noted that negotiations with other trade partners are progressing, with several trade deals "very close" to being finalized. In contrast, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not support Trump's claim of ongoing China talks, while Beijing denied any discussions were taking place.

Despite these developments, sentiment could be dampened by signs of slowing demand from China. Reports suggest that some Chinese manufacturers are suspending production and seeking alternative markets due to US tariffs, which is leading to fewer orders and impacting employment. Although not widespread yet, these disruptions could ultimately hurt Oil demand, as China remains the largest importer of Oil.