US: Tariff revenues surge, but not enough - Standard Chartered

US tariff revenues reached a record-high USD 12bn on 22 April; MTD, they are up 130% vs 2024 levels. At this pace, the increase in tariff revenue is likely to total a little less than 0.4% of GDP over a full year. If tariffs stay at current levels, revenues may move up a little, but there are two-sided risks, Standard Chartered's economists note.

Funding cup is one-third full

"The US collected record-high customs duties of USD 15bn for the first 16 business days of April (through 22 April), according to Treasury Department data; this is more than double the revenue collected over the same period last year. On 22 April alone the Treasury collected USD 11.7bn. Based on this, we estimate additional revenue from the tariffs implemented so far at an annualised rate just below 0.4% of GDP. USD 15bn is a non-negligible amount, but it is slightly below our recent estimated range and insufficient to offset the fiscal cost of the planned Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TJCA) extension."

"Moreover, there is a risk of a noticeable - and possibly persistent - pop in inflation, without generating enough revenues to pay for tax cuts and a flatter deficit path. This is the first glance we have had of the impact of the 2 April tariff announcement. So far, the data suggests higher revenue collection, but that the increment is not a game-changer for government funding."

"The Treasury publishes its receipts from customs and duties on a daily basis. The 16th business day of the month (22 April in both 2024 and 2025) typically sees the bulk of revenue collection. Whether we look at 5-day, 10-day or MTD averages, revenue collection seems to be running at 2.0-2.4 times the 2024 pace. The US collected c.USD 100bn in tariffs in 2024, so even if we use the top end of the 100-140% increase range, it may collect c.USD 140bn more this year. This implies an increase of just under 0.5% of GDP and represents a roughly 4.5% hike in the average tariff rate."