USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades lower near 1.3850 after retreating from nine-day EMA

• USD/CAD finds Initial resistance at the nine-day EMA around 1.3890.
• The 14-day RSI is positioned above the 30 level, suggesting a continuation of short-term corrective bounce.
• The pair may find primary support at the six-month low of 1.3781.

The USD/CAD pair retraces its gains from the previous session, trading around 1.3850 during the European session on Thursday. Daily chart technical analysis highlights a prevailing bearish trend, with the pair continuing its descent within a well-defined descending channel.

Additionally, the USD/CAD pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reflecting weak short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 30 level, suggesting a continuation of short-term corrective bounce. However, with the RSI still holding below the 50 mark, the broader bearish outlook persists.

On the downside, the USD/CAD pair may retest the six-month low of 1.3781, last seen on April 21. A decisive break below this level would strengthen the bearish outlook, potentially guiding the pair toward the lower boundary of the descending channel near the 1.3550 zone, with further support around 1.3419 -- its lowest level since February 2024.

Initial resistance for USD/CAD is seen at the nine-day EMA around 1.3890, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near 1.3970. A breakout above this channel could indicate a shift toward a bullish bias, potentially opening the door for a move toward the 50-day EMA at 1.4144. Further upside could target the next major resistance at 1.4793 -- the lowest level recorded since April 2003.

USD/CAD: Daily Chart