US and China: who will make the first move? - MUFG

The past week continued to bring a lack of clarity on tariffs, including on how and whether the US and China will eventually come to the table to at least start to negotiate. If anything, there were some escalation at the margin, with curbs on Nvidia's AI chips designed for the China market which led to some sell off in risk sentiment, coupled with further request for comments on the US' proposal to charge port fees for China-made container ships, MUFG's FX analyst note.

Tariff tensions deepen as US-China talks remain distant

"While China has set some preliminary conditions for talks according to latest news reports, the gulf between the two powers seem quite large still. It's important to note that the dispersion in expectations does not seem confined to China as well, with significantly differing readouts from meetings out of Japan and the US post tariff negotiations."

"This week, the most important thing to watch out for markets may be how the disagreement between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell could play out further, and as such also further raising concerns around US exceptionalism and the sanctity of US institutions. Last week, Fed Chair Powell struck a relatively hawkish tone for the path of Fed funds rate, highlighting that the Fed needs to be certain that a one-off price increase from tariffs do not eventually result in persistent inflation increases over time."

"Curiously, this view somewhat differed from some other members of the FOMC such as Governor Waller who was more focused on the downside risk to US growth from one-off price impact of tariffs. These remarks from Fed Chair Powell elicited a meaningful response from President Trump, with the White House reportedly seeking for ways to remove Chair Powell before his time as Chair ends in 2026. We don't think that Trump has legal authority to do so, but any signs that this will be forced through will certainly have a significant impact on markets and also the US Dollar."