Canadian Dollar continues to churn amid tariff woes

• The Canadian Dollar whipsawed on Monday, briefly falling before rising to new familiar technical levels.
• BoC survey outlook sees further tariff stress on the horizon as businesses hunker down for declining sales and price spikes.
• Key US inflation data dots the economic calendar landscape this week.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) whipsawed to kick off the new trading week, briefly rising after the US Dollar (USD) took a fresh beating on rumors of a possible tariff extension from the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump was quick to quash the rumors, stating that not only is he not considering any tariff exemptions, but that he would be seeking additional tariffs on China after Chinese officials responded to new US tariffs with counter-tariffs.

The Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest Business Outlook Survey found that many Canadian firms are bracing for extended fallout from the US's across-the-board and "reciprocal" tariffs. The survey period, which is from February, does not include President Trump's tariffs announced on April 2, and survey results moving forward will likely continue to take a turn for the worse.

Daily digest market movers: Tariff headlines dominate market flows

• The Canadian Dollar remains trapped near the 1.4200 handle against the US Dollar.
• The Loonie fell 0.6% against the Greenback early Monday, before reversing course and returning to the day's opening bids.
• US President Donald Trump has issued a threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on China as the Trump administration ramps up its retaliatory stance on countries that fight back against US tariffs.
• According to the BoC's outlook survey, a growing number of Canadian firms are expecting to have to raise prices thanks to US tariffs.
• Canadian consumers also expect rising odds of a recession in the months to come.
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are due later this week on Thursday.
• Friday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index figures will draw plenty of investor attention as markets barrel toward a post-tariff environment.

Canadian Dollar price forecast

Despite near-term shifts in intraday bids and a sharp uptick in general volatility, the Canadian Dollar continues to churn out familiar technical levels against the Greenback. USD/CAD remains trapped near the 1.4200 handle, with price action going back-and-forth between key technical points.

USD/CAD remains trapped just beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.4300. However, Loonie bulls remain unable to push bids below the 200-day EMA near 1.4100, leaving price to waffle between the two major moving averages.

USD/CAD daily chart