Australian Dollar steadies near 0.6270 after RBA decision, tariffs in focus

• AUD/USD rose toward the 0.6270 zone on Tuesday amid cautious recovery following RBA's status quo decision.
• RBA held rates unchanged at 4.10% and avoided forward guidance, while investors await Trump's tariff announcement.
• Despite modest gains, key indicators remain bearish; resistance looms near short-term moving averages.

The AUD/USD pair hovered around the 0.6270 region during Tuesday's American session, posting a moderate rebound following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision. The central bank, as widely expected, held its Official Cash Rate steady at 4.10% while opting not to offer explicit guidance on future moves. Despite the initial lift in the Aussie, the pair remains capped by technical resistance zones and broader market caution, especially as traders brace for United States (US) President Trump's long-awaited tariff announcement. From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes bearish continuation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although rising, remains below the neutral line.

Daily digest market movers: AUD steadies after RBA, tariff risks cap gains

• The Australian Dollar pared back early-week losses and moved toward the 0.6270 region, attempting to stabilize after two days of declines.
• The RBA kept its benchmark rate unchanged and struck a neutral tone, with Governor Michele Bullock confirming the board hasn't committed to a May move.
• Risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of "Liberation Day," when the White House is expected to unveil a broad tariff package targeting key trade partners.
• Fresh tariff threats weigh on global growth sentiment and, by extension, commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie.
• A slight improvement in China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI added some short-term support to AUD/USD.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) policy remains in focus, with markets ramping up bets on June rate cuts after soft ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS data.
• According to CFTC data, speculative bearish bets on AUD have reached multi-week highs, highlighting market skepticism around the Aussie's outlook.

Technical analysis

From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair recovery remains constrained by a series of resistance levels, despite posting intraday gains. The MACD histogram continues to show fresh red bars, indicating lingering downside momentum, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index has bounced but still trades below the 50 threshold, signaling weak bullish strength.

The Commodity Channel Index improved but remains in negative territory, suggesting only a tentative recovery. The pair remains trapped in the middle of the daily range between 0.6231 and 0.6282, unable to break out decisively. Several key moving averages--the 10-day EMA, 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs--are all aligned to the downside, underscoring the persistent bearish bias.

Immediate support is noted around 0.6267, while upside resistance clusters near 0.6289 and 0.6290 and extends to 0.6292. Without a meaningful breakout, AUD/USD is likely to remain directionless in the near term, especially with traders holding back ahead of Wednesday's US tariff announcement.