GBP/USD treads water as markets await tariff blowback

• GBP/USD continues to cycle familiar technical levels near 1.3000.
• Market data has taken a backseat to headlines as tariff changes loom.
• The Trump administration is still on pace to impose sweeping tariff packages.

GBP/USD churned chart paper in familiar territory on Monday, grinding out a familiar congestion zone as investors brace for the latest iteration of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats. The Trump administration is set to enact a wide catalogue of tariffs on functionally all of the US's trading partners beginning on April 2.

The specific details of the Trump administration's tariff plans for this week remain fuzzy and elusive, but prominent tariff threats remain "reciprocal" tariffs on every country that have their own import tariffs on US goods, regardless of the economic context. Further retaliatory tariffs on Canada and the European Union are also expected, with additional flat tariffs proposed on Copper and automobiles across the board.

The release schedule on the UK side of the economic data docket remains light this week, but a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are due later this week. This NFP release could be a major datapoint for markets as the US economy heads into a post-tariff economic environment, with March's labor data set to act as a "bellwether" for the impacts of the Trump team's tariff plans.

GBP/USD price forecast

GBP/USD has chalked in a firm consolidation phase just below the 1.3000 handle. Pound traders remain unwilling to push bids any higher, and Greenback flows are also dominating most of the marketscape. However, Cable short pressure also remains limited.

Bullish trendlines remain intact from January's deep swing low at the 1.2100 price level, and momentum remains in favor of bidders as price action churns on the high side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2725.

GBP/USD daily chart