Australian Dollar stuck near 0.6300 as PCE data fails to shift sentiment

• AUD/USD trades sideways around the 0.6300 area after the US PCE report delivered no major surprises.
• Fed remains cautious; tariff concerns and inflation outlook continue to dominate market attention.
• Bearish pressure persists technically, with indicators showing resistance near short-term moving averages.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains directionless during Friday's American session, with AUD/USD hovering around the 0.6300 zone. The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index failed to generate significant market reaction, as the figures aligned with expectations except for the core PCE, which ticked slightly higher than forecasts. The Aussie struggled to gain ground despite weaker demand for the US Dollar, as caution persists over trade tensions and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) uncertain policy outlook.

Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar steady after uneventful US PCE print

• AUD/USD continued to range around the 0.6300 zone following the release of the February PCE inflation data, which came broadly in line with market forecasts.
• San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated that two rate cuts remain likely in 2025, but emphasized the need for patience as inflation and tariffs evolve.
• Broader risk sentiment was weighed down by fresh US auto tariffs and the looming April 2 deadline for reciprocal trade measures.
• The Australian Dollar remained vulnerable, with risk appetite softening and demand for safe-haven assets--like Gold--rising to new all-time highs.
• Markets continue to anticipate a rate cut from the Fed later this year, but near-term bets remain cautious amid mixed economic signals.
• Hopes for additional economic stimulus from China helped limit losses in the Aussie, given Australia's strong export ties to the Chinese market.
• Despite the Fed's cautious stance, the US Dollar lacked conviction as traders shifted focus toward macro risks and geopolitical developments.
• The US Dollar Index remains capped below key resistance at 105.00, with technicals suggesting range-bound movement in the near term.
• Investor positioning remains net short on AUD, with bearish bets building amid prolonged global trade and inflation uncertainty.

Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair struggled to find traction following the PCE data, remaining locked in a narrow range around the 0.6300 zone. While the inflation report failed to surprise, the pair still declined modestly, reflecting lingering bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped further into the lower neutral band, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram printed a fresh red bar, reinforcing downside risks. Bearish signals also emerged from Momentum and Bull Bear Power indicators. The short-term 10-day and 20-day moving averages now act as immediate resistance, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain firmly bearish. Key support levels lie at 0.6295 and 0.6294, while resistance is noted at 0.6297 and 0.6303. Without a decisive break, the pair is likely to remain confined in this consolidation phase into next week.