Created
: 2025.03.20
2025.03.20 13:12
Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase after touching a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Thursday. Bulls now seem reluctant to place fresh bets amid slightly overbought conditions and a positive risk tone, which tends to undermine the safe-haven precious metal. Any meaningful corrective decline, however, still seems elusive in the wake of the growing uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policies and their impact on the global economy.
Apart from this, geopolitical risk and dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations should act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain any meaningful traction and languishes near its lowest level since October touched earlier this week amid bets that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This could further contribute to limiting the downside for the commodity and warrants caution before confirming a near-term top for the bullion.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 70 mark, flashing overbought conditions and holding back bulls from placing fresh bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before traders start positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so. That said, the recent breakout through the $3,000 psychological mark and the subsequent move up suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside.
Meanwhile, any meaningful corrective slide is likely to attract some dip-buyers around the $3,023-3,022 area. This should help limit the downside near the $3,000 mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,980-2,978 intermediate support en route to the $2,956 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,930 support before the XAU/USD drops to the $2,900 mark and last week's swing low, around the $2.880 area.
Gold has played a key role in human's history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn't rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country's solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Created
: 2025.03.20
Last updated
: 2025.03.20
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