EU to probe Aluminum imports - ING

The EU is launching a probe into Aluminum imports to protect the bloc's industry from an expected surge in cheap imports displaced by US tariffs, according to media reports, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US premiums surge to a record high

"The European Commission is set to announce the probe on Wednesday. Last week, Donald Trump placed 25% tariffs on all steel and Aluminum imports. 'The recently announced US tariffs on Aluminum are likely to worsen the situation further with a significant threat of trade diversion from multiple destinations,' the document reads.'"

"European Aluminum premiums have been falling, while US premiums surged to a record high. This suggests some suppliers to the US are already redirecting sales to Europe to avoid Trump's tariffs. Europe is dependent on primary Aluminum imports. Its Aluminum sector was one of the worst affected during the energy crisis, with more than one million tonnes per annum taken offline. Some restarts have begun in Europe, but significant capacity remains offline."

"Although the EU continues to import Russian Aluminum, volumes have fallen over the past two years as European buyers self-sanction after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia now accounts for around 6% of European imports of primary Aluminum, halving from the 2022 levels. Last month, the EU banned imports of Russian Aluminum, with a quota system allowing 275kt to be used over a 12-month period."