USD: Consumer pessimism still growing - ING

US data continues to haunt the dollar, which fell against all G10 currencies excluding the yen yesterday. February retail sales rose less than expected (0.2% month-on-month versus 0.6% consensus) following a major drop in January, while the Empire Manufacturing Index plummeted to the lowest level in more than a year, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. 

DXY can test 103.0 before the FOMC risk event today

"Equities had a good day despite the data disappointment but remain in a fragile spot as the US administration has hinted it might accept a recession as a necessary evil in the path to a reset in trade relationships. Incidentally, the Fed - which announces rates tomorrow - does not look like it's in a position to offer much respite to risk sentiment as rising inflation expectations still warrant caution on cuts."

"There is no top-tier data likely to steer the dollar today, although some focus will be on industrial production figures for February and housing starts. Further downside risks for the dollar may stem from today's Trump-Putin phone call on Ukraine. Any progress towards Russia accepting the ceasefire plan laid out by the US and Ukraine can add extra pressure on the safe-haven dollar and yen."

"DXY can continue to slip below pre-election levels and test 103.0 before the FOMC risk event today, which may end up offering some support."