CAD holds range on the day - Scotiabank

So, the 25% tariff regime might have had a very short shelf life after all and we might be looking at low double digit border tariffs now, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. 

Market awaits developments

"That's still not great, only relatively less painful. But it might be about where markets have priced broader tariff risks into the Canadian Dollar (CAD) at this point which means downward pressure on the CAD may ease as we assess the outlook for additional tariffs moving forward. The CAD has gained little in overnight trade after rallying into the close yesterday and may struggle to push much higher while tariff uncertainty persists." 

"A rebound in risk appetite and narrower US/ Canada spreads are modest tailwinds for the CAD but rightsizing spot to its estimated fair value equilibrium (currently 1.4224) may have to wait for clarity on what the ultimate tariff regime facing Canada looks like. Note markets have pared expectations for next week's BoC policy decision somewhat, pricing in 18-19bps of cuts, from all but fully pricing in a 1/4 -point cut yesterday." 

"Spot has swung sharply between 1.4370 and 1.4545 since the start of the week, defining near-term ranges. Those ranges are holding this morning, with the market reluctant to lean too hard on USD/CAD. A break under 1.4350/70 should drive spot lower, potentially towards 1.4200/50 on a range extension trade, however."